
Borussia Dortmund faces a must win game against Augsburg at Signal Iduna Park, in the 16th round of the German 1.Bundesliga.
Borussia Dortmund is currently 5th in Germany and 10 points behind leaders Bayern Munich, a strange situation for a team that generally played excellent football this year. Dortmund is playing the price for playing very poorly away from home in Bundesliga and they failed to win again on the road last round, 2-2 at Hoffenheim. However, that was a very good game for Dortmund, as Hoffenheim is the only undefeated team in the Bundesliga and Dortmund had a man sent off before half time.
Augsburg is sitting on the 12th place in the standings 5 points above the relegation zone. The visitors are in decent form, as they have lost just once in their last 6 Bundesliga matches. On the other hand, their 1-0 home win over Gladbach last round was their first victory in 5 matches. This is a rugged, defensive side (12 goals scored in 15 matches), which is not particularly easy to beat. Interim manager Manuel Baum will lead Augsburg for the second consecutive match, after the club sacked Dirk Schuster.
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Dortmund continues to struggle with injuries and will now miss the suspended Marco Reus as well, along with Sahin, Burki, Subotic, Sokratis, Guerreiro and probably Piszczek. Castro is slightly doubtful, but he should return to action in this game. As for Augsburg, they will miss Caiuby, Bobadilla, Callsen-Bracker, Finnbogason and possibly Max.
Borussia Dortmund: Weidenfeller – Passlack, Ginter, Bartra, Schmelzer – Weigl – Dembele, Gotze, Castro, Schurrle – Aubameyang
Augsburg: Hitz – Verhaegh, Hinteregger, Gouweleeuw, Stafylidis – Baier – Schmid, Kohr, Koo, Usami – Ji Dong-Won
For all of Dortmund’s Bundesliga struggles this season, they have been excellent at home, winning 5 and drawing 2 with a 17-4 goal difference. They are undefeated at Signal Iduna Park in all competitions.
Dortmund definitely does not deserve to be out of the Top 3 in Germany and they will be desperate to climb up the table today. Their strength at home should help them achieve that against Augsburg.
The visitors are a decent team and they are not easy to beat, losing just once in their last 6 matches. However, they are obviously a class below Dortmund and I don`t believe they have the tools to trouble them either. Augsburg’s offense is horrible, they barely scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches and they do not seem capable of posing a threat on counterattacks against Dortmund. If they are not able to challenge the hosts in this way, the match is virtually lost, as it`s hard to see an all out attacking team like Dortmund going scoreless at home.
My tip is Dortmund to win with a -1,25 asian handicap, I can see a 2-0 or 3-0 victory for the home side here, as they are desperate for the three points. I think odds on the bet are decent. Prediction: Borussia Dortmund – Augsburg 2-0.
Pick: Dortmund (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.67 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.36
Event date: 20 December
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