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Borussia Dortmund will play host to FC Porto in the first leg of what is arguably the most anticipated Europa League Round 32 tie.
Dortmund if flying high right now, recording 4 wins and 1 draw since the Winter break ended, scoring 9 goals in the process. They were far from impressive in the 1-0 home win over Hannover in the last round, but surely they had this match against Porto in mind, so you can’t really count that against them. Dortmund reached this stage after finishing second in a group with Krasnodar, PAOK and Qabala, but the Germans were qualified before the last two games – which they lost.
Porto is on the back of a superb 2-1 road win against the red hot Benfica – an impressive result even though Porto was pretty clearly the second best team in that match, being saved by Casillas. That being said, Porto has been pretty shaky over the last few months, alternating wins and losses. Scoring is not a problem, as Porto found the net 9 times in the last 4 games, but they do concede a lot. The visitors reached this stage after a 3rd place finish in the Champions League group stage, suffering a monumental collapse to lose the last two games and end up 1 point behind Dynamo Kiev.
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Team news & lineups:
Dortmund will miss Bender and Sahin. Aubameyang is a slight doubt but he will almost surely start. Porto has massive problems in defense ahead of this clash, as Maxi Pereira and Marcano are both unavailable. Winger Danilo Pereira, who was often used for cover at the wing back position, is also out.
Dortmund: Weidenfeller – Piszczek, Hummels, Sokratis, Schmelzer – Weigl, Gundokan – Mkhitaryan, Kagawa , Reus – Aubameyang
FC Porto: Casillas – Layun, Verdasca, Indi, Angel – Herrera, Neves, Andre – Brahimi, Aboubakar, Corona
Missing Maxi Pereira and Marcano will be a huge blow for the visitors. Porto’s back line was already shaky, but without two of the regular starters, there could be serious problems. The visitors don`t have depth in the back four and often have to improvise with midfielders when 1 or 2 regulars are out.
Dortmund has to be expected to find the net against a makeshift Porto defense, the Germans will surely be able to create chances. On the other hand, Porto’s main weapon is their offensive game, so I expect them to look for an away goal here, which I am confident they will get. Scoring is not a problem for the visitors and they know the importance of finding the net on the road, especially if their defense fails, as expected.
Look for an entertaining clash here, with Dortmund exploiting Porto’s weakness and missings in defense, while the visitors will rely on their attacking power to score themselves. With all these in mind, my tip is both teams to score. A better bet than over 2,5 I reckon, because it’s unlikely either side will win 3-0 or 4-0 and the odds for both to score (which are dropping) are higher as well. Prediction: Borussia Dortmund – FC Porto 2-1.
Pick: Both to score
Odds: 1.95 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.60
Event date: 18 February
