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Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid will square off at Signal Iduna Park in a highly anticipated Champions League Group H clash.
The Germans had an excellent start to the season and have been on a tear recently, winning their last three matches in the Bundesliga with a 14-1 combined scoreline (!!) and leading the league with 16 out of 18 possible points. However, Dortmund hasn`t been able to replicate the same form in the first round of the Champions League, losing 1-3 at Tottenham and making this a crucial game for their hopes of advancing into the KO stage.
Real Madrid aren`t quite looking like themselves right now. It`s early into the season, but Real have already digged themselves a hole in La Liga, trailing Barcelona by 7 points. Los Blancos were unimpressive in their last two outings (0-1 vs Betis, 2-1 vs Alaves) and even their 3-0 home win against APOEL in the first round of the UCL group stages was an average showing at best.
Bet on Dortmund vs Real Madrid and get your 100% (100 €) bonus at Ohmbet now!Team news & lineups:
Schurrle, Schmelzer, Durm, Rode, Reus and Guerreiro are out for Dortmund. Real Madrid will miss Benzema, Vallejo, Marcelo, Kovacic, Hernandez and possibly Kroos.
Borussia Dortmund: Burki – Piszczek, Sokratis, Bartra, Toljan – Dahoud, Weigl, Castro – Pulisic, Aubameyand, Philipp
Real Madrid: Navas – Carvajal, Ramos, Varane, Nacho – Isco, Casemiro, Modric – Asensio, Ronaldo, Bale
It`s well documented that both of these teams can score goals, and the H2H record proves it. Borussia and Real met twice last year at the same stage of the competition and both matches ended 2-2.
However, you get the feeling that odds on goals have gone a bit out of control here. For example, the highest price you could find for under 3.5 goals in their meeting at Signal Iduna Park last season was 1.80. Now, odds are as high as 1.97. What changed? Nothing really (Real actually looks less dangerous up front), it`s all about the general public betting on goals.
Odds of 1.55 on under 4 goals (asian) seem value to me. While Dortmund is finding the net at will lately, it will be much harder to do so against a team like Real Madrid. At the same time Real seems to have slowed down a bit on the attacking side. Ronaldo is in poor form, and with him not being anywhere near his best, Real`s offense suffers a lot.
There`s also the fact that Real Madrid will miss Benzema, and Marcelo’s absence should also make a difference, as Nacho’s offensive impact is nowhere near what the Brazilian brings to the table.
Even if you take the high scoring H2H results into account, fact is that only once in the previous 8 meetings (from 2012 onwards) there have been more than 4 goals scored between these sides. And the two 2-2 draws last season were both achieved thanks to goals in the last 3-4 minutes of the match.
Naturally you would expect the two teams to score in such a match, the rhythm should be good and seeing more than 4 goals is a possibility – but it`s not a probability and there`s no basis to actually expect it to happen. I think the price on bets on unders has gone way overboard, so my tip here will be under 4 (asian) – which should be a relatively safe choice considering the bet is void if 4 goals are scored. Prediction: Borussia Dortmund – Real Madrid 1-1.
Pick: under 4 goals
Odds: 1.55 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.40
Event date: 26 September
