Dortmund – Werder

Borussia Dortmund takes on Werder Bremen in what will be the final match at Signal Iduna Park for coach Jurgen Klopp and club legend Sebastian Kehl. But the game also has important ramifications in the standings, with the two teams being tied in points for the 7th and 8th places – Dortmund needs a draw to book an Europa League spot, while Werder needs to win and hope Dortmund will win the DFB Pokal final against Wolfsburg.

Dortmund played a little better recently, but they are still far away from the level shown in previous years and it’s very unlikely they will find it now, at the end of the season. Borussia won 4 of the last 6 matches, but one was via penalty shootout against Bayern (a lucky result) and they are on the back of a 2-1 defeat at Wolfsburg. Klopp’s side will play Europa League football next season if they win the cup, but if they don’t they need to protect the 7th place – for which they need to avoid a loss. Klopp stated that Europa League qualification means “absolutely everything”.

Werder Bremen hasn’t played very well lately, winning just once in the last 4 matches, so on paper the win they need today will be very hard to get. However, the visitors haven’t played bad foootball either and they were a bit unlucky to lose last round against in form Gladbach 2-0 – missing a golden chance before Gladbach made it 2-0 at the end.

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Team news & lineups:

Grosskreutz, Sahin and Ramos are out for Borussia, while Reus will probably play limited minutes. Werder continues to have a lengthy injury list with Galvez, Garcia, Fritz, Wolfs, Yildirim and Lorenzen all out of the lineup due to injuries.

Borussia Dortmund: Weidenfeller – Durm, Sokratis, Hummels, Schmelzer – Kehl, Gündogan – Mkhitaryan, Kagawa, Kampl (Reus) – Aubameyang

Werder Bremen: Casteels – Gebre Selassie, Prödl, Vestergaard, Sternberg – Bargfrede – Öztunali, Bartels – Junuzovic – di Santo, Selke

Listen, Dortmund is obviously a favorite to win this game, but they get too much credit by the bookies and I would be really surprised if they win by a large margin. Werder Bremen is a solid side with as much motivation as Borussia and they defeated Dortmund earlier this season, 2-1. Werder’s solid counterattacking abilities could also work well against a Dortmund side that will look to dominate the game from the outset.

Jurgen Klopp sounded almost desperate to book an Europa League spot and finish with a win, so I don’t think he will take too many risks and I reckon he will be more than happy with a 1 goal win. Look for a smart approach by Dortmund, professional, not going gung-ho, while Werder will try to keep a clean sheet for as long as possible and hit on the break or from set pieces. My tip is Werder Bremen to cover a 2 goal asian handicap. Dortmund won by more than 2 goals at home just twice this season (Paderborn, Schalke). Werder lost by more than 2 goals away three times (Bayern, Frankfurt, Gladbach), but never in 2015.

There are also interesting odds on the under over market, where you can bet under 4 goals at about 1.60, which seems great value – but I am sticking with my tip on Bremen to cover the handicap. Prediction: Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen 2-1.

Pick: Werder Bremen (+2 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.70 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.6
Event date: 23 May