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Borussia Monchengladbach hosts Paderborn in the 23rd round of the German Bundesliga.
Gladbach was knocked out from the Europa League by Sevilla, losing 2-3 at home midweek after also losing the first leg 1-0. The bright side was that they managed to score a couple of goals at home, because the offense has not been working at all lately … very slow and no ideas, reason for which Gladbach won a single game from the last 5 … and that was 1-0 in the last minute vs. Koln after having no clear chances for the whole match. The hosts keep the ball very well, create danger, but can not find that extra pass to put guys in position to score. They rely a lot on their solid defense and hope for a 1-0 or 2-0. Borussia has a full squad available today, no injuries or suspensions.
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Paderborn is in total disarray at the moment and only their good start to the league makes them stay with a chance of avoiding the drop. Paderborn is third to last in Bundesliga on the playoff / playout spot and has 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 6 matches. Their attack is totally gone … they are absolutely horrible up front and have went scoreless in 5 of the last 6 matches. Really not a good moment for Paderborn and today they have to play without Hartherz (suspended), Rafa and Bertels (injured).
Paderborn shows no signs of improving and even if Gladbach is struggling a bit, the hosts should win this game with relatively low stress. Gladbach is one of the best teams in Bundesliga at home and it is certain that they will control the whole match … going towards 70% possession, maybe even surpassing that mark. They will eventually score and I find it hard to believe they will concede. Borussia defends very well and Paderbord is a disaster up front and has no counterattacking ability.
My tip will be not only the home win, but a Gladbach win to nil … probably 1-0, but without the win being put to question at anytime. Of course if Gladbach has a good game, they can score more. The odds are very good and I will pick this one with 8 units because it looks like a probability rather than a possibility in my opinion. Correct score prediction: Borussia Monchengladbach – Paderborn 1-0.
Pick: Gladbach to win to nil
Odds: 2.60 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 12.8
Event date: 1 March
