Bosnia – Iran

The Bosnians have only pride left to play for, while Iran will qualify from the 2nd place if they win today and Nigeria loses to Argentina (by 2 goals, or without scoring more than Iran). If Iran wins by 2 goals, any kind of Nigeria defeat will do.

Bosnia has been utterly disappointing so far, as they were expected to finish second in the group but are now last, with zero points and no chance of going trough. They but on a good performance in the 2-1 loss against Argentina, but the loss to Nigeria killed their hopes. It was especially surprising that Bosnia did not create more danger up front, as they are well known to be an offensive side who can score goals.

Iran has been by far the most defensive team in this World Cup, they parked the bus against both Nigeria and Argentina, holding 28% and 22% possession against the two sides. Carlos Queiroz really organized the back line at a World Class level, we should remember that Iran also conceded just 2 goals in 8 qualifying matches prior to the World Cup. Offensively though Iran has been a non-factor, though they did create a little bit of danger on the breaks, especially against Argentina. Today they need a win, so it remains to be seen what their approach will be.

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Team news & lineups

Both teams will be happy to report a clean bill of health ahead of this clash.

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Begovic – Spahic, Besic, Mujdza, Sunjic – Lulic, Medunjanin, Hajrovic, Misimovic – Pjanic, Dzeko

Iran: Haghighi – Haji Safi, Hosseini, Sadeghi,  Montarezi – Teymourian,  Nekounam, Shojaei, Dejagah, Pooladi – Ghoochannejad

The Iranians know they can’t betray the style that brought them so much success, so we can be sure that they will play a defensive game again, hoping to keep a clean sheet, avoid falling behind and score on the breaks – or, if needed, rely on the last 20 minutes to push up and try to get a winning goal. They know all to well that if Bosnia scores first, it will be very hard to recover. The Europeans are a pride nation with positive attitude and I`m sure they will treat this game seriously, looking to get a win in order to avoid the 3rd place – the odds on Bosnia to win are dropping and I think they might pull it off, but I wouldn’t bet on that. If this game would have been played at the start of the tournament, odds for the under would have never been higher than 1.60 but, due to a lot of goals being scored in the World Cup, we get this amazing price. Each game has its own story so the goals scored in other groups have no relevance: Iran will defend, Bosnia lost its sharpness up front, it should be a low scoring encounter. My tip is under 2,5 goals. Prediction: Bosnia – Iran 1-0.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.91 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 25 June