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Rajon Rondo will return in Boston for the first time tonight as an opponent, after playing 9 seasons with the Celtics (and winning an NBA ring) before moving to Dallas one month ago.
Boston (11-18, 8-9 home) was clearly going nowhere anytime soon and decided to trade Rondo in an attempt to build for the future. The Celtics struggled early without Rondo and are still not able to produce top basketball, but they managed to get a win against Sacramento in the last match to end a 4 game losing streak. Boston could still make the playoffs in the weak NBA Eastern Conference, but it`s looking like a long shot and they will probably end up ‘trying’ to lose games for a higher draft pick.
Dallas (23-10, 10-5 away) is a bonified title contender and is looking really, really strong, even more after they acquired Rondo. The Mavs have a top class starting 5 along with decent depth as well and, after just a few struggles to integrate Rondo, they are playing top class basketball right now. Dallas won its last three games and the last two were really impressive against solid teams like the Thunder and the Wizards.
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I love Dallas’ chances to win this and they should cover the spread in the process as well. The Mavs are by far the better team here, no doubt about that and it`s hard to see them struggling against Boston. I also think there are a few factors that are minimizing the chance for an upset here. First, Dallas had an additional day of rest compared to Boston and also rested its starters for most of the second half in their last match, as it was a blowout. The rest could be key today, especially because we are talking about a busy period around the New Year. Also I expect Dallas to benefit from Rondo’s presence – Boston was his team, he knows their players like the back of his hand and he should be able to set up his teammates in an effective manner. Not lastly, I can’t see a weak team like Boston playing two great matches in a row after they blew out Sacramento 2 days ago.
My tips is Dallas to win and cover the 6 point spread – the spread is not so high and I can easily see the Mavs owning this somewhere around 10-15 points. I can see the odds slightly dropping on this bet and the spread might move towards 6,5 or 7 points (still playable for sure if that happens). Prediction: Boston Celtics – Dallas Mavericks 95-107.
Pick: Dallas -6
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 3 January
mavs easy. good pick
Very good analysis and pick, I 100% agree, spread should be bigger. Both teams are still getting accustomed with their new players(after the trade), but obviously it’s Boston who are going to struggle more without Rondo.