Celtics – Wizards

The Boston Celtics will take on the Washington Wizards in the Eastern Conference semifinals, with Game 1 set to be played in Boston.

The Celtics (1st seed) were down a shocking 0-2 after two home games to the 8th seeded Bulls in the first round, and it seemed like they could have one of the worst choke jobs in NBA history. However, not only did they win the next 4, but they blew Chicago off the court. Much of that had to do with the Bulls losing Rondo due to injury, but Boston was obviously a much improved side. Those first two losses were definitely influenced by Boston’s All Star PG, Isaiah Thomas, losing his sister in a car accident. Thomas just got back from the funeral so it remains to be seen if he will be at his best, but he has been better and better in the last few games.

Washington (4th seed) is coming after a very difficult matchup with the Atlanta Hawks in the first round. The Wizards were big favorites and ended up winning 4-2, but they were far from impressive. They barely won their home games by slim margins and got blown out on the road, until finally winning Game 6 in Atlanta on the back of a brilliant performance by John Wall.

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Washington was touted by many as the biggest danger to Cleveland in the East and indeed they have a brilliant player in John Wall, but they didn`t show much in the first round. They should have lost at least one of their home games, which would have put them in a very difficult position. They were a non factor in the first two away games and only Wall’s heroics allowed them to (comfortably) win Game 6.

Boston had their problems in the first round as well, but they ended that series with 4 consecutive wins, playing the brand of basketball which brought them the 1st seed at the end of the regular season. Washington will be a much tougher proposition than the Bulls, but Boston is still the better team here, they have more depth and better chemistry.

What’s more, home court advantage should be a big factor. Washington is a great home team and almost all their success can be attributed to the way they play in DC. On the road, they are a different team and often look lost.

Washington was 19-22 away from home in the regular season, a record comparable to teams seeded 6-8, or who didn`t even make the playoffs. In the first round of the playoffs, they lost by 18 and by 10 on the road against a mediocre Atlanta team, before stepping up to win Game 6 by 16 points. In the 4 regular season meetings with Boston, each team won its two home games.

There has been a tendency to overestimate Washington all season due to their star backcourt of Wall and Beal, particularly Wall, but they don`t have much else going for them and their bench is poor. Most importantly, they rarely play the same way on the road as they do at home.

In the regular Boston won by 7 and 8 points at home against the Wizards, and I see a similar outcome here – a tight game, but with Boston in control and stepping up their defense when it matters. The -4,5 point spread holds an extra risk I`m not willing to take this time, so I will back the straight home win.

My tip is Boston to win. Prediction: Boston Celtics – Washington Wizards 109 – 102.

Pick: Celtics
Odds: 1.57 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.13
Event date: 30 April