Boston – Workington

Boston United will surely feel confident when they take on lowly Workington at home, but of course results don`t always respect the ‘paper mathematics’.

Boston is currently on the 7th spot in the Conference North standings, three points away from the last playoff spot and with a game in hand. Needless to say, the hosts have great motivation to take the win today. Boston has played some top football at home so far, winning 7, drawing 3 and losing 1, and their main strength is their offensive line. The team scored 42 goals in the 22 rounds elapsed, making for one of the best attacking setup in the league. Boston has gone trough a rough patch of form recently, failing to win in 4 Conference North games, but they recovered last round to record an excellent 5-2 result at home against Vauxhall motors. Surely the game against Workington comes at the right time to help Boston get out of the slump for good.

Workington is dead last in the Conference North standings, with just 14 points in 23 matches, and relegation seems a lock at this moment, especially considering the visitors` form. Workington`s last 10 games in all competitions saw 2 draws and 8 losses, and for more short-term form we can see that the team managed a single point in the last 6 matches (all in Conference North). Another worrying fact for the visitors is their away form. They haven`t one a single match on the road this season, managing only 3 draws and 8 losses with an abysmal goal difference of 6-23. Workington has the second worst defense in the league, allowing exactly 2 goals per game in average.

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Last season Workington won 3-1 on Boston`s home court, but it was the only win for the minnows in 8 direct meetings. They managed a draw (also last season), and prior to that Boston won 6 times.There are no reports about any new notable injuries for either Boston or Workington, so team news should not have an impact over the final result here.

With their shaky defense, Workington look to be in for a long night against the goal-friendly Boston side. The quality difference is obvious here, and with home court advantage, plus the morale from the big win in the last round, Boston should be able to win this comfortably. They have the required goal scoring ability and meet a proper opponent to even cover a 1 or 2 goal handicap. Look for Boston to dominate from start to finish and put a couple of goals past Workington. I`ll go with a -1,25 asian handicap here. My pick is Boston – Workington 3-0.

I was initially thinking about a 7 unit investment, but after further contemplation I decided that 8 units seems like a moare reasonable stake for this bet. This Workington side is just playing horrible football at the moment and they usually lose big, while Boston United is a team with the ability to cover the spread. The odds for the -1.25 asian handicap pick are rising at the moment, but I doubt this trend will last, especially considering that the price for the simple win (which is excellent by the way) is going down.

Pick: Boston (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.92 @ @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 7 January

Editor Facts

• Tipster Rostick won his last 6 Conference tips