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Extremely interesting match betting-wise here in the FA Cup 1st round replay between Brackley and Gillingham. Gillingham managed to earn themselves another chance in this tie after equalizing in the last seconds of stoppage time at home for a 1-1 draw. The winner will meet Conference Premier side Macclesfield Town in the next round of the FA Cup, so they`ll have decent chances to advance even further in the competition.
Brackley Town is on 5th place in the Conference North, three divisions below their opponents. They had their chance to upset the odds in the first leg but they narrowly missed it, and now it is questionable if they will get the same opportunity for the second time. Brackley is having a good season, they are on the playoff spots, they are undefeated at home (4-3-0) and they are also on a 6 match unbeaten run.
Gillingham got promoted to the League One last season and they are playing pretty good football, being safe from relegation at the moment. The visitors are on 14th place and are on the back of a solid away win, 2-1 at Sheffield United. Gillingham is in great form lately, winning 3 out of the last 5 games and losing only once.
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Team news: Without a doubt, the big news for this bet is that Brackley Town will most likely field an outfield player in goal today! Their only GK, Bill Turley, is suspended, and the hosts seem reluctant to deputize youngster Alistair Worby who apparently made a fool of himself in some youth matches recently. Assistant Manager Darren Collins (46 y/o, former striker) and attacking midfielder Elliot Sandy are favorites to start in goal – both having a couple of minutes of experience as keepers over their careers. As for the visitors they will field a very strong lineup after the scare in the previous meeting, but they will miss Fish, Hewitt, Hollands, and Irish U21 international Harriman.
I am confident that Gillingham can easily win this game even if Brackley eventually deputizes Worby in goal (I can`t rule that out, despite all reports stating otherwise). The visitors are a much better team than Brackley, they`re at another professional and tactical level. The scare they suffered in the previous meeting will surely help them to be more focused today and to avoid underestimating the opponent for the second time. Gillingham`s good form and strong offensive line will also help them overcome an inferior opponent which will mostly try to park the bus. Keeper Turley was arguably Brackley`s best player in the previous 1-1 draw with Gillingham.
Though you can never count on something being a sure bet, even if Brackley will start with an outfield player in goal, the odds here indicate a clear value bet and I am happy to take it with maximum stakes. -1 Asian Handicap seems to be the best choice here. Expect the odds to go down if the information about Brackley`s keeper becomes public knowledge world-wide. You can`t help but feel that Brackley missed its chance to win in that 1-1 draw at Gillingham. Brackley Town – Gillingham 1-3.
Pick: Gillingham (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.88 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 18.8
Event date: 18 November
Editor Facts
- Rostick won 4 of his last 6 picks
