Brazil – Chile

Brazil hosts Chile at Belo Horizonte in the first match of the World Cup knockout stage. Many are giving advice on Brazil to win the tournament, but they have to get past Chile first and it won’t be easy.

Brazil did not turn heads with their performance so far in the World Cup but they did the job: 2 wins, 1 draw, 7-2 goal difference and first place in the group. People say that Brazil did not play too good and that they lack the offensive players they had in the past, but Brazil has now 17 wins in the last 19 matches – for sure not a record to be ashamed off. Of course, the hosts do have some problems and it is true that their offense did not look great despite the 7 goals they scored. They had mediocre opponents and against Mexico for example they held less possession than the visitors. Interesting to see how Brazil responds to the strongest opponent they met so far.

Brazil lineup: Cesar – Alves, Silva, Luiz, Marcelo – Paulinho, Ramires, Gustavo – Oscar, Fred, Neymar

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Chile knocked out Spain in the World Cup for the first big surprise of the tournament. The Chileans were known as a strong squad but even so they were underrated and played better than expected. Very good performances in the first two games, played very well against Netherlands as well despite losing 2-0 via two late goals. I think Chile is one of the best teams off the ball in this World Cup, they get good advice from the bench and react very well to the events on the pitch – Chile and will create big problems to the not so sharp Brazilian offense.

Chile lineup: Bravo – Jara, Silva, Medel, Mena, Isla – Aranguiz, Diaz,  Vidal – Vargas, Sanchez

The stakes in this game are huge and I see both teams approaching the match very carefully. Brazil struggled offensively against Mexico and against Croatia, despite scoring three goals (one was a circus penalty, other was a late break). With Chile so good off the ball, it will be hard for Brazil to find spaces to work with. Chile will likely play the same 5-3-2 that made them look very good in defense and for sure rely on counterattacks, but it won’t be easy against one of the best back lines in Brazil’s history (Alves, Luiz, Silva, Marcelo). I think under 2,5 goals is a good bet to take so that will be my pick. Also, the odds on Brazil are simply rubbish and I wouldn’t give advice against an x2 either. Brazil and Chile met in a friendly 8 months ago and it was 2-1 for Brazil. Correct score prediction: Brazil – Chile 1-1 (2-1 extra time).

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.25 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 28 June