Brazil – Mexico

The second round of the Group stage will kick off with Brazil hosting Mexico in Fortaleza. The two sides have three points each in Group A.

Brazil did not impress too much in the first match against Croatia, it was a lackluster display from the home team despite the final 3-1 result. The game could have well ended with a draw if it wasn`t for that free second half penalty awarded to the South Americans. It was well known that Brazil does not have the same star power like in the past, especially on the offensive end, but after 15 wins in the previous 16 games, most of them by handicap, their performance against Croatia was a little disappointing. Nevertheless, it was a good result against a strong team, albeit lucky.

I have to admit I did not rate Mexico too highly a couple of months ago, especially after they finished behind USA, Costa Rica and Honduras in the Central American qualifiers. However, after seeing Mexico in the pre – World Cup friendlies, I have to say this team is solid. Even when they lost they were the better team, they dominated Portugal and backed up that form with a solid 1-0 result against Cameroon in the first group game in Brazil. The scoreline could have been bigger, but Mexico had 2 goals wrongly disallowed.

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Team news & lineups

Hulk is doubtful for Brazil, and he will probably not start, being replaced by Bernard. Mexico has a full squad to choose from.

Brazil: Cesar – D Alves, T Silva, D Luiz, Marcelo – Paulinho, L Gustavo – Bernard, Oscar, Neymar – Fred

Mexico: Ochoa – Rodriguez, Marquez, Moreno – Aguilar, Herrera, Moreno, Guardado, Layun, Vasquez – Dos Santos, Chicharito

I know Brazil is the home team here, but the kind of odds they are getting seem to be a little off, especially after seeing them in the first match. Brazil now has the two lowest odds for the moneyline win from the whole tournament (1.30 against both Croatia and Mexico), despite the fact that there were much safer and unbalanced matches, France – Honduras for example. Mexico is a solid side and they have an important matchup advantage, as they are a brilliant counterattacking team – which will suit them perfectly against Brazil. Even Croatia, a rather static team, put big pressure on the South Americans on counters (also scoring a goal), so for Mexico this will be a big opportunity. Indeed, Brazil is clearly the better team, has home court advantage and could be favored by referees, but Mexico to cover the 1,5 handicap looks like a great bet at excellent odds. Brazil should win by a narrow margin, but I`m not completely ruling out an upset, the visitors are in great shape. My tip is Mexico +1,5 handicap. Prediction: Brazil – Mexico 2-1.

Pick: Mexico (+1,5)
Odds: 1.88 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 17 June