Brazil – Netherlands

The 3rd place playoff in the World Cup sees Brazil trying to erase the shame from the Germany match and Netherlands trying to make use of probably the last hurray (at least at World Cup level) for the great generation of Robben, Van Persie or Sneijder. For sure the stakes are not as big as in the semifinals, but there is still something to play for and both teams would like to finish 3rd. Let`s go with the match analysis.

What can we say against Brazil? They were awful vs. Germany, there are no words to describe their defensive efforts. Brazil does not has the same players like in the past and did not impress this tournament, but still 7-1 was incredible. For sure Brazil will look better today, they can’t repeat that horrible performance, but they still have their limits as seen over the course of the tournament – and I don’t know if they deserve to be favorites over Holland. Team news for Brazil say that Neymar is still out. Thiago Silva comes back after suspension.

Brazil lineup: Cesar – Alves, Luiz, Silva, Marcelo – Gustavo, Fernandinho – Willian, Oscar, Hulk – Fred.

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Netherlands started the World Cup strong with those 3 impressive group stage wins, but they were disappointing in the KO stage despite almost reaching the final. Van Gaal opted for a very prudent and defensive approach, and Netherlands barely edged Mexico in the last minute, then Costa Rica at penalties. The semifinal against Argentina was one of the ugliest games in the World Cup and Holland fully deserved to exit the competition via penalties. With Van Persie in very poor form, Van Gaal will probably rely again on defense and hope for counters. Team news for Netherlands say that Vlaar is doubtful.

Netherlands lineup: Krul – Kuyt, De Vrij, Vlaar, Martins Indi, Blind – Wijnaldum, Sneijder, Depay – Robben – Van Persie.

We know that the 3rd place playoffs in the World Cup usually see a lot of goals, teams are disappointed after missing on he final and are a little relaxed; but today’s game has different circumstances and I doubt goals will come easy today. You might also argue that Brazil will be fired up after the humiliation against Germany and that Netherlands has great attacking players, but my analysis is focused on totally different factors. Do you see Brazil risking anything defensively after the 7-1 drubbing they got in the semis? I sure don’t. On the same note, do you see Netherlands forfeiting the cautious/defensive approach that brought them success over Chile, Mexico or Costa Rica and almost got them trough the semis against Argentina. Again, I don’t. The fact that Thiago Silva comes back in defense for Brazil and that Neymar will still miss is also a good argument for a low-scoring game. I see an evenly matched encounter with a lot of fear and prudence from Brazil and with the same defensive approach for Holland. My tip will be under 2,5 goals, but Netherlands to finish 3rd is also a decent bet. Correct score prediction: Brazil – Netherlands 1-1 (Netherlands win at penalties).

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.47 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 11.76
Event date: 12 July