Brazil – Switzerland

Title favorites Brazil will kick off their World Cup campaign against Switzerland. The two teams will play in Group E alongside Serbia and Costa Rica.

In terms of individual quality, there are few teams which can top (or even match) Brazil in this World Cup. The Selecao are oozing with quality and their results since that 1-7 humiliation against Germany in 2015 come to confirm that they are the real deal. Brazil cruised in the South American qualifications, which is not an easy thing to do, and has lost just once in the last 21 matches – winning 17 of them. In the 4 friendlies played this year, Brazil won against Russia, Germany, Croatia and Austria with a 9-0 aggregate scoreline.

Switzerland enters the World Cup in similarly great form, having lost just once in the last 22 outings, winning 16 of those games! The Swiss side needed a playoff to qualify despite winning 27 points out of 30 in the qualification group, which Portugal won in a tiebreaker, and they defeated Northern Ireland 1-0 aggregate. Out of the 4 friendlies played in 2018 Switzerland won 3 and got a draw against Spain.

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Team news & lineups:

Fred is doubtful for Brazil, otherwise both teams are healthy.

Brazil: Alisson – Danilo, Miranda, Silva, Marcelo – Paulinho, Fernandinho, Coutinho – Willian, Jesus, Neymar

Switzerland: Sommer – Lichtsteiner, Schar, Akanji, Rodriguez – Behrami, Xhaka – Shaqiri, Freuler, Zuber – Seferovic

A fair case can be made that Switzerland has never been better ahead of a World Cup, but they will know they have their work cut out for them against a giant like Brazil, which is also in fantastic shape.

Still, a dominating Brazil win might not be as easy as it first seems.

For all their offensive qualities, the Brazilians have mostly remarked themselves due to an air tight defense, which conceded just 0.61 goals per game in the qualifiers, and only 4 goals in the last 19 games! Brazil also kept 5 clean sheets in a row.

That is not all that surprising when you consider the fact that Brazil’s midfield has a clear defensive inclination. Casemiro, Paulinho and Fernandinho are all mostly defensive midfielders, which strengthens an already solid back line (even if you play just two of them, like it will be the case here, with Coutinho dropping back). On the other hand, Brazil`s forwards often lack quality service, which even the likes of Neymar or Jesus need in order to deliver.

As such, it won`t be easy to break down an air tight Swiss defense, which allowed just 0.7 goals per game in the qualification group. In the last 6 games Switzerland played, they allowed a single goal.

Switzerland has also proven to be effective in frustrating superior opponents on the big stage. The last two times they played top teams during World Cups or Euros they held France (2016) and Argentina (2014) to 0-0 draws in regular time.

There`s also the fact that Neymar is not fully fit for Brazil according to head coach Tite, even though the PSG ace has been named in the starting lineup. Of course, this can`t be taken at face value, but it could be true – and if it is, it could diminish Brazil`s offensive capabilities.

All things taken into account, the Swiss side should be able to park the buss effectively and highlight Brazil`s lack of creativity in midfield. My tip is under 2,75 goals to be scored. Prediction: Brazil – Switzerland 1-0.

Pick: under 2,75 goals
Odds: 1.82 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.56
Event date: 17 June