Brighton – Derby

The Championship playoffs will kick off tonight with Brighton & Hove Albion hosting Derby County in the 1st leg of the first semifinal. Brghton is the fourth seed, Derby the first, but the hosts are the odds-on favorite today by a slim margin.

Brighton narrowly grabbed the last playoff spot after a 2-1 win against Nottingham Forrest in the last round of the regular season, edging Reading for just 1 point. The hosts are in very good form, undefeated in 8 games and on the back of 2 consecutive wins. Brighton is a good side, mainly defensive – does not win in dominant fashion, but is also very hard to beat, thus registering no less than 15 draws in the 46 rounds of the league. The hosts are not an especially good home team and have a similar style of play both on the road and on their home stadium – with similar results. Brighton posted a 10-7-6 statline at the American Express Community stadium this season.

Derby finished the season as the best team behind the direct promotion places, getting the 1st seed in the playoffs. Derby’s 85 points mean that the visitors gained 13 more points than Brighton during the regular season and they will enter this match with confidence after they won 5 of the last 6 games. Last time out they got a draw at Leeds, but they did not need a win anyway. Derby was the second best road team after Leicester this season in the Championship and also scored the most goals away from home.

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Team news & lineups

Brighton will miss Croft and probably Stephens. Derby County will have to do without Barker and Coutts.

Brighton & Hove Albion: Kuszczak – Calderon, Greer, Upson, Ward – Forster-Caskey, Andrews, Orlandi – Lindgard, Ulloa, Buckley

Derby County: Grant – Wisdom, Keogh, Buxton, Forsyth – Hendrick, Thorne, Bryson – Bamford, Martin, Russell

Very interesting game here between two fine teams in good form, it will also be nice to see Derby`s excellent offense against Brighton’s classy back line. I reckon Derby should be considered the slight favorite due to the fact that they are the better team and are so good on the road, also they won both matches against Brighton this season (1-0 home, 2-1 away). To get another win at Brighton today will be very hard, but at least a draw is well within Derby’s reach. A defensive Brighton does not have the power to find that edge up front to escape with a narrow win against a team like Derby, so my tip here will be Derby County to start the playoffs with a solid result and cover the +0,5 handicap. The odds are rather low, but my call is they should be even lower. For better value you could maybe try the draw. Prediction: Brighton – Derby County 1-1.

Pick: Derby County (+0,5 handicap)
Odds: 1.62 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.96
Event date: 8 May