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Brighton & Hove Albion will host Leeds United in the English Championship, with the hosts desperate in their quest to achieve direct promotion.
Brighton (4th place) is pretty much certain of its place in the playoffs, but the objective now for the hosts is finishing on a Top 2 spot, which guarantees direct promotion. They are 4 points behind Hull (2nd) and Middlesbrough (3rd), though Middlesbrough also has a game in hand over Brighton. Aside from an accidental 1-4 defeat against Cardiff two rounds ago, the hosts have played excellent football lately, winning 5 of the last 7 matches and also claiming a great 0-0 draw away at Hull. Brighton is on the back of a 4-0 road win over an in form Bristol side.
Leeds doesn`t have much left to play for, the visitors are sitting on the 17th place, 9 points clear off relegation and also having 2 games in hand over all the teams involved in the relegation battle. The objective for Leeds is to prepare for the next season, when things will hopefully be better. The visitors are in poor form, failing to win any of the last 4 matches in all competitions and scoring just 1 goal – which came in the 1-1 home draw against Fulham last round. They did play some decent matches lately, 0-0 against Middlesbrough and 0-1 against Watford in the FA Cup, but really nothing to shout about. The last time Leeds scored more than 1 goal in a Championship game was way back in December!
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Team news: Defenders Bruno and Bong will probably be back for Brighton, while Leeds continues to miss key striker and top scorer Wood.
Leeds is one of the most futile Championship sides when it comes to scoring, as they found the net just 30 times in 32 matches and their recent statistics are even worse, with only 1 goal in the last 4 games. Coming to play on the road against a super motivated and in form Brighton side, I reckon Leeds will find it very hard to shake the net. Also, Brighton’s defense is very respectable, allowing an average of 1 goal per game (34 in 33 games) and less than 1 goal per game at home (15 in 16 games). Pretty impressive statistics.
With the new Premier League TV deal, gaining promotion this year is more important than winning the Champions League, so I expect full focus from Brighton today, not giving Leeds absolutely anything for free. It remains to be seen if the hosts can break the defensive barrage of Leeds, but they should definitely be able to keep a clean sheet.
My tip is Leeds not to score (Brighton clean sheet), very good odds on this bet, well worth a 7 unit investment in my eyes. Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion – Leeds United 1-0.
Pick: Leeds not to score
Odds: 2.15 @ Bwin
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.05
Event date: 29 February
