Bristol – Wasps

Wasps will try to make another step towards winning the Aviva Premiership regular season, as they travel to Bristol to take on the last placed team in the league.

With only 3 matches to go, Bristol is virtually relegated at this point, something which has been apparent for some time now. The visitors have lost 16 of their 19 matches in the Aviva Premiership this season and their average margin in those losses was a staggering 18.1 points. Bristol is coming after their best match of the season, almost beating second placed Exeter away from home, but collapsing towards the end for a 34 – 38 loss.

Wasps have been tied in points by Exeter at the top of the table after the Chiefs won on friday, but today`s hosts will return to the first place with a win against Bristol. Wasps has been a little shaky recently, winning without impressing in their last two Aviva Premiership games. They were also knocked out of the European Champions Cup, being handed a 17 – 32 loss in Ireland.

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Team news: Wasps will use their best lineup in this game, which tells you they are treating Bristol with full attention – not surprising considering that Wasps is out of the Champions Cup and now only has the Premiership to focus on.

Despite not playing their best rugby in the last three games, Wasps look good value to claim a big win in Bristol. The visitors had to deal with playing in the European Champions Cup recently, but now they are free of that burden and can focus on the Premiership. As such, it`s logical to expect them to improve and get back to that incredible level they had all season.

Bristol is simply inferior in all facets of the game to the Wasps and they have regularly been blown out by teams this season, including at home. They lose by an average of 18.1 points in the Premiership, so you would expect one of the best teams in the Premiership to put even more past them.

Bristol did play a fantastic game last week in Exeter, by far their best performance of the season, but that might actually be bad news for them. They put so much effort into that game, everything clicked and they still lost. They may well be tired and a bit disheartened, not to mention that it`s hard to see a team like Bristol playing two great games in a row against the top two teams in the league.

Wasps beat Bristol 70 – 22 (!!) at home earlier in the season and while that scoreline is unlikely to happen again, a 20+ points Wasps win would accurately depict the difference between the two teams, even with Bristol as hosts.

Wasps have a ton of ways to dominate this game, they can do it both their forwards and their backs, or in the kicking game. Look for Wasps to break the opposing lines with relative ease and find spaces out wide. As such, 4 or 5 tries are well within their capabilities and that should be more than enough to cover the spread. My tip is Wasps to cover the 15,5 point handicap. Odds on the bet are going down and the point spread is moving towards 16,5 points. Prediction: Bristol – Wasps 18 – 42.

Pick: Wasps -15,5
Odds: 1.87 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.96
Event date: 16 April