BKN Nets – GS Warriors

Brooklyn Nets will host a Golden State Warriors team that will surely have one eye on the big Christmas game against Lebron’s Cleveland Cavaliers.

Brooklyn (7-20, 6-7 home) has the third worst record in the NBA this season and they have lost 8 out of the last 10 games, including the last three. The bright spot for the Nets however was their good play at home, where they are 6-7 and can be dangerous. Even so, the Nets will definitely be tanking this season and they should end up as one of the worst two teams in the Eastern Conference.

The Warriors (25-4, 13-2 away) have the best overall record in the NBA and are playing lights out basketball after the Summer addition of Kevin Durant. Golden State has won 9 of its last 10 and 5 in a row, leading the league in scoring (by far) and showing why they are big favorites to win their second NBA title in 3 years.

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This will one of the least important games on Golden State’s schedule this season, as their focus will be on the next game against the Cavs, in the big rematch of last year’s finals. Warriors have a big chip on their shoulder after blowing a 3-1 lead in those finals, so they have waited all year to get revenge on the Cavs. They will have 1 less days of rest than Cleveland and they will play that game away from home – so this match against the lowly Nets might not see Golden State’s full focus.

The Warriors have not given a rest to Curry, Durant or Thompson all season. They are expected to play here, but it would not be surprising at all if Steve Kerr decides to rest one of them, along with 1-2 other important players (Iguodala comes to mind). Even if everybody plays, the top guys might see a reduced number of minutes. All of these are speculations, but valid speculations.

Even if the Warriors decide to play at full strength, it`s hard to see them running like crazy ahead of the Cavs game. The energy should be lower than usual and definitely below what Brooklyn will come up with. Everybody in the NBA can play, so if the Nets come out with energy, winning the 50-50 balls, they should stay in this game at home, where they have been decent this year.

Brooklyn is a team that, despite its poor roster and poor record, has the ability to sometimes raise its game and give a fight to the best teams in the league. It happened against the Warriors last season when they almost ruined Golden’s State record breaking 24-0 start. It happened this year, with Nets beating the Clippers and almost beating the Rockets or the Celtics – all of these being contenders to reach the Eastern / Western Conference finals.

I think Brooklyn will put in a good effort here and keep it within reasonable distance. Obviously the Warriors can beat anybody by 30 on their day and all analysis can turn to dust if Curry or Thompson play and decide to go 10/14 for three, but I feel the circumstances make a bet on the Nets worth a shot. Additionally, this could turn into a serious value bet if Golden State decides to give a rest to somebody, or play the Big 3 lesser minutes.

My tip is Brooklyn Nets to cover the 14 point spread. The handicap line is currently moving towards 13 points, so you might want to take this early. Prediction: Brooklyn Nets – Golden State Warriors 107 – 114.

Pick: Nets +14
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 5.70
Event date: 22 December