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Eight placed Caen will meet 16th placed Laval at home in the Ligue 2 round 20. Both teams are in big need of points.
Caen is one of the best teams in Ligue 2 in regard to the quality of the squad. Their main objective is to achieve promotion to Ligue 2 but a recent run of poor form saw them dropping to the 8th place, 6 points away from the places that assure promotion. Caen won just one time in the last 5 games in the league and lost 2-1 to Tours in the last round. The strong points for Caen however are their performances at home (5-2-2 statline) and especially their great offensive power. With 35 goals scored the hosts have the best attack in the league, but on the other hand they also conceded 25 times.
Laval can’t hope for more than avoiding relegation this season. It will be a long journey, because the visitors are just 1 point above the relegating places and it will be expected that they will be very close in a dogfight until the last few rounds of the season. The short term form for Laval is very poor with 2 consecutive losses, preceded by a home draw against lowly Chateauroux. Away from home Laval lost 7 out of the 10 games they played (2-1-7). Laval has a goal difference of 23-29 in 19 rounds, allowing goals very easily but also being able to score.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Caen team news: Nangis, Wague, Sebe (all out)
Laval team news: Dreuslin (out)
At first glance I would say the obvious bet is Caen to win. But the odds are very short and there is still a decent amount of risk in this bet in a rugged and unpredictable league like the Ligue 2. Analyzing carefuly I decided the over 2,5 goals is the best option here. Caen is the most offensive team in the league, while Laval also has big averages in goals per game. The numbers surely support this bet but there is also the fact that Caen is absolutely desperate for a win and will attack from the start, leaving some spaces for Laval to exploit. For sure Caen will create chances with their excellent offense against Laval’s poor defense – but the visitors can also hit on counters as they have the quality to score. My pick for this game would be something like Caen – Laval 2-1.
Let`s view this again. In Caen`s game there is an average of 3.16 goals per game scored. In Laval’s games there is an average 2.76 goals per game scored. And there is also the proper situation for an open game, with Caen desperate to win. And we get odds 2.00 from Pinnacle for the over 2,5 bet, so the under is more probable than the over, which does not look logical. I am going with the over 2.5 bet with high stakes – but like I said I can’t fault anyone who decides to pick Caen’s win – they should win, but it’s just no value in the odds because as one of the biggest favorites in football today, they are backed by virtually every casual punter. Instead, the over bet has great value at evens and I expect it to be won.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9
Event date: 17 January
Editor Facts
- Ocean has 1 void and 1 won in tips in January
