Canada – Romania

While the Rugby world isn`t drooling in anticipation ahead of the RWC clash between Canada and Romania, this will surely be the most important for each of these two teams. Both sides are viewing this like their best chance to get a win in the competition and avoid the wooden spoon. While for Canada it`s the last match after three losses, Romania only played twice and will still have a match left to play against Italy.

Canada started off slow with a 7-50 loss against Ireland, being heavily exposed by the Shamrocks, but somehow found unknown energy and class to challenge Italy (18-23) and play a very, very good match against France (18-41), scoring two great wing tries before collapsing physically towards the end.. The problem for Canada is that while Romania had 10 days of rest (and also rested some starters in the last match), the North Americans had 2 grueling matches in the last 11 days, giving their absolute all against both Italy and France. Coach Crowley himself stated that it could affect the team.

Romania had a nightmare schedule to start the Rugby World Cup, playing France and Ireland in the space of 5 days, but they managed the situation well and now the schedule is really opening up. The Oaks were very competitive against France and were unlucky to lose by 27 points (11-38) and managed to avoid a massive blowout against Ireland just 4 days later (10-44) – while resting some players as well. Now the Oaks are fresh, coming back after a 10 day rest and will be ready for the game they always targeted for a potential win.

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Team news & lineups:

Canada will change 6 of the players that took the court against France. Romania will make 7 changes compared to the lineup that lost against Ireland. The changes are meant to strengthen the team, as some players were rested against the Irish.

Canada: 15 Harry Jones, 14 Jeff Hassler, 13 Ciaran Hearn, 12 Nick Blevins, 11 DTH van der Merwe, 10 Nathan Hirayama, 9 Gordon McRorie, 8 Aaron Carpenter, 7 John Moonlight, 6 Jebb Sinclair, 5 Jamie Cudmore (c), 4 Brett Beukeboom, 3 Doug Wooldridge, 2 Ray Barkwill, 1 Hubert Buydens.

Romania: 15 Catalin Fercu, 14 Madalin Lemnaru, 13 Paula Kinikinilau, 12 Florin Vlaicu, 11 Ionut Botezatu, 10 Michael Wiringi, 9 Florin Surugiu, 8 Mihai Macovei (c), 7 Viorel Lucaci, 6 Valentin Ursache, 5 Johannes van Heerden, 4 Valentin Poparlan, 3 Paulica Ion, 2 Otar Turashvili, 1 Mihaita Lazar.

Romania defeated Canada in the last three Head 2 Head matches between the nations. The most recent ones were in 2013 (21-20) and 2014 (18-9). Surprisingly, Romania did not score a single try in these two matches (Canada did), but their expertise at the kicking game got them trough, with all 39 points coming from the boot of Vlaicu.

For Romania the tournament is basically just starting. Actually, captain Macovei said it himself. The Oaks’ plan for the first two matches was to leave a very good impression against France and avoid humiliation and injuries against Ireland (which they did). The Ireland match was basically forfeited even from before the RWC started, as Romania had in mind the match against Canada, the most important, where the plan is to leave absolutely everything on the pitch for a potential win – and, of course, do the same against Italy. These last two matches are the ones from which Romania is hoping to get something from and the schedule vastly advantages the Oaks in comparition with Canada.

Before the tournament started, I was certain the Oaks are the better team and they will win against Canada – also keeping in mind the recent Head 2 Head. Now, Canada left a very good impression lately, but they will be much more tired and the Oaks were good as well. It will be an evenly matched clash, with Romania dominating the scrum and counting on their forwards, while Canada is stronger on the wings. In these circumstances, I fully expect Romania’s fresher legs and superior experience to make the difference. Canada’s players were already dead tired in the last 20 minutes against France five days ago.

The better kicking game and penalty taking of Romania will also be key in a match that’s set to have very few tries. Canada has a poor 65% percent of made conversions / penalties, while Romania sits at 75% (despite Vlaicu having a bad day against France). If Vlaicu does not miss easy penalties and Fercu shows why he`s in the Saracens squad, Romania will win, as we know the forwards will do their job.

My tip on this one is a Romania win. Covering the +3,5 or the 3 point handicap would be a safer choice of course, but the difference in odds is massive and I reckon it is a much better option to go with the best value. Odds of 2.55 are way too high and definitely worth the risk in my eyes. Prediction: Canada – Romania 15 – 19.

Pick: Romania
Odds: 2.55 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 15.50
Event date: 6 October