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Canada will and Romania will square off in an International rugby test set to be played at Ellerslie Rugby Park, Edmonton.
Canada has been dirt poor since the 2015 World Cup. They were a team on the rise a few years ago, but the last couple of seasons have been dreadful and the Canadians dropped down to No. 23 in the rankings, behind teams like Russia, Uruguay or Germany. The hosts are coming after an ugly 0-13 home defeat to Georgia last weekend, a match in which they were completely outplayed by a team similar to the Romanians.
Romania is on the back of a 21-33 loss in Japan, a pretty good result for the Oaks. Romania played very good rugby against an excellent Japan team and with 10 minutes to go, they looked like they could even snatch a win – as they were totally dominating the lineout mauls and the scrum. Romania is in a good moment right now, having won the Rugby Europe Championship a couple of months ago ahead of Georgia (beating them 8-7 in the decider), so they will be confident of bouncing back after the expected loss in Japan.
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Both teams will play strong lineups here. Romania will make 4 changes compared to the team that lost in Japan and they continue to miss 3 of their best players – Lazar, Ursache and Fercu – but otherwise the Oaks have a full squad, which doesn`t happen very often.
Canada: 1. Anthony Luca (The Burnaby Lake Rugby Club) 2. Ray Barkwill(Ontario Blues) 3.Matt Tierney (Pau), 4. Brett Beukeboom(Cornish Pirates), 5. Evan Olmstead(Newcastle Falcons), 6. Tyler Ardron(Chiefs), 7. Matt Heaton(Darlington Mowden Park), 8. Aaron Carpenter(Doncaster Knights), 9. Gordon McRorie(Prairie Wolf Pack), 10. Connor Braid(BC Bears), 11. Sean Duke(BC Bears), 12. Nick Blevins(Prairie Wolf Pack), 13. Conor Trainor(Vannes), 14. DTH Van der Merwe(Newcastle Falcons) (C), 15. Ciaran Hearn(London Irish)
Romania: 1.Ionel Badiu (Carcassonne),2.Otar Turashvili (Colomiers), 3.Andrei Ursache (Carcassonne), 4.Johannes Van Heerden (Stiinta Baia Mare), 5. Valentin Poparlan (Timisoara Saracens), 6. Vlad Nistor(Albi) 7.Viorel Lucaci (Steaua Bucuresti), 8.Mihai Macovei (C) (Colomiers), 9.Florin Surugiu (Steaua Bucuresti), 10.Florin Vlaicu (Steaua Bucuresti), 11. Ionut Dumitru (Steaua Bucuresti), 12.Sione Fakaosilea (Stiinta Baia Mare), 13.Paula Kinikinilau (CSM Bucuresti), 14.Fonovai Tangimana (Timisoara Saracens), 15. Luke Samoa (Stiinta Baia Mare)
Canada has been really poor last week against Georgia, being unable to create anything, struggling big time to get past halfcourt with ball in hand and spending tens of minutes in their own 22. Georgia dominated the entire match, gave Canada no chance, and the score could have been much larger if not for the wind – which forced Georgia to miss penalties, and eventually decide to go for lineouts / scrum instead of kicking for 3 points.
Romania may not be quite as good as Georgia, but they are very close, having beaten them just a couple of months ago in the Rugby Europe Championship. There`s no doubt that right now the Oaks are a better team than Canada, and they also like to play against them.
Romania has a very good matchup with this Canadian team, having won the last 5 H2H matches – including a 21-16 win last November in Bucharest, with the Romanians winning much easier than the score suggests. On the other hand, this will be the first time the two teams meet in Canada.
Romania should be able to win this game, they are a better team in much better form and also have Canada’s number. Morale and confidence levels are also by far in Romania’s favor. It`s hard to see what Canada could do here, as they are worse in the forwards department, worse in the kicking game and even if they may be superior out wide on paper, that`s only by a small margin (or not at all if you look at their recent performances). Romania just played toe to toe with Japan, a brilliant running team, so Canada shouldn`t trouble them in the wide game.
Expect Romania to dominate the mauls and scrums, as they did so impressively against Japan, and hold their own on the wings. The steady boot of Vlaicu will also be very important for the Oaks in what is expected to be a windy day. Canada doesn`t have a kicker as consistent of Vlaicu, so that will mean extra points for Romania.
One thing that may work against Romania is potential fatigue / jet lag. They traveled to Japan last week, where they complained about the weather, and now they had to fly all the way to Canada. On the bright side, we are talking about just 2 matches with a one week break between them. It`s also the last relevant test of the summer for Romania. As such, I think they will be fine and put their best effort on the pitch.
My tip is Romania to win. I`m confident enough to stake 10 units on this pick, as I just don`t see how and in what areas could Canada outplay the Romanians to an extent which would allow the hosts to win the game. Odds are dropping on the bet. Prediction: Canada – Romania 11 – 18.
Pick: Romania
Odds: 1.52 @ Betsson
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.20
Event date: 17 June
Odds exploding right after I posted, Romania up to 1.69 now. That`s no problem, because I checked and nothing out of the ordinary happened. Nothing has changed. Just natural odds movement. I expect them to go back down
But of course I`m kicking myself, could have gotten 1.69 if I waited a couple more hours. Hell, I would have gotten 1.60 ten minutes later. Didn`t see this coming 🙁
Yes the odds are 1.72 at the moment 😉 hmm i hope bookies dont know something we do 😉
They don`t. I think some reputable bookie increased the odds (maybe seeing the fact that Canada will use a strong lineup, which was not a sure thing yesterday) and others followed, now creating a domino effect. People see odds on Canada dropping and bet on them thinking something is going on. I would be surprised if this trend continues much longer, but I might be wrong.
At the moment 2.20 on Romania 😉 what is happening with this game 😉 ?
Nothing`s happening. There are no injuries or anything of that sort. From what I understand, people just think that Romania will be tired (I explained in my preview why that could be) and Canada could take advantage. The only new info is that some Romanian players didn`t sleep very well after arriving in Canada. That`s a factor, but you can`t go from 1.50 to 2.50 based on that.
Basically, everybody is just betting on Canada because they think they are the favorites, not because anything happened since my preview.
At the current odds, this becomes a must bet – win or lose. Odds have gone waaaay too far, it`s becoming a herd instinct to go with Canada. I`m gutted I lost so much value.
😆 my man …
😀