Navarro – Wozniacki

Carla Suarez Navarro and Caroline Wozniacki will square off in one of the most anticipated clashes of the second round at the WTA masters event in Madrid. Wozniacki injured her shoulder in the first round and it remains to be seen if she will be able to overcome that problem in this match.

Suarez Navarro had a rather mediocre season so far, but she did start to show improvement since the clay court season started. A natural on the red dirt, Suarez Navarro reached the quarterfinals in her previous tournament in Stuttgart (lost to Mladenovic) and defeated Peng in the first round here in Madrid. Suarez Navarro lost the first set in that match but ended up finding her rhythm and destroying Peng in the decider, 6-0.

Wozniacki has taken advantage of the fact that most top players have struggled this season and she is now second in the rankings on 2017, close to the WTA Race leader Karolina Pliskova. Wozniacki compiled an excellent 23-7 record on hard courts this year, but clay will be a bigger challenge for her. Caroline lost in her previous tournament to Ostapenko (Praga 2nd round) and was very close to losing in the first round here in Madrid – she had physical problems and was lucky to edge out Monica Niculescu 7-5 6-7 6-4.

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Wozniacki leads the H2H 5-1 and seems to have a matchup advantage over Suarez Navarro. However, the clay court surface will give the Spaniard an edge in this match. The H2H on clay is only 2-1 for Wozniacki and one of her wins was back in 2016 when they were both teenagers playing in a low level ITF event.

The most important thing to take into account here is the fact that Wozniacki had big physical problems in the first round on Sunday. The Dane injured her shoulder and had visible difficulty in the final set against Niculescu, at one point looking likely to retire. She was being dominated by the Romanian and only experience and luck allowed her to win – Niculescu really was the better player in the second part of that match.

Wozniacki is coming after only one day of rest, having played a 3:30 hour thriller against Niculescu, and she has an injured shoulder. These are not good signs at all, especially as Wozniacki will meet an experienced clay courter who knows how to lengthen points and make her hit extra shots.

Of course, there is a real possibility for Wozniacki to have made a full recovery. Treatment today is at an incredibly high level and she`s a top class player, so you have to give her the benefit of the doubt – but realistically speaking she will probably not be at her best and maybe she won`t be even healthy enough to finish the match.

Considering the odds on Suarez Navarro I am willing to take the risk of betting against Wozniacki here, I feel it`s a good opportunity and a value bet. The Spaniard wasn`t very good this year but apparently found her rhythm in the last match, she loves this surface and should capitalize if Wozniacki continues to struggle. Even if Wozniacki comes out recovered, she is not playing well on clay and Suarez Navarro would have an honest shot.

My tip is Suarez Navarro to win and I suggest investing at a bookie which does not void bets in case of retirement. I`m going with Unibet, which only requires for a set to be completed for the bet to stand, even if SboBet for example has better odds. Prediction: Carla Suarez Navarro – Caroline Wozniacki 7-6 6-1.

Pick: Suarez-Navarro
Odds: 2.14 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.98
Event date: 8 May