Castres – Clermont

Castres will host Clermont in Round 6 of the French rugby Top 14, and will hope to capitalize on the fact that the reigning champions are set to field a weakened lineup in this clash.

Castres is looking to repeat last season’s performance and reach the Top 14 playoffs, but their start to the season hasn`t been convincing. The hosts have just 1 win in the first 5 games and have lost 3 games in a row, but the situation is not as bad as it looks. A traditionally strong home team, Castres had to play three times on the road (losing all of those) and one of their home games was against league leaders Montpellier, which they lost narrowly.

After a title winning campaign last season, in which they also played the European Cup final, Clermont had a shaky start to 2017, prompting questions about their ability to keep up the same level. The visitors did win their last two games, but both were at home and last round`s 23-21 victory over Racing wasn`t too impressive. Clermong has 3 wins and 2 losses so far in 5 rounds.

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Team news: While Castres will play their preferred lineup in this match barring the usual injuries (like Mihaita Lazar), Clermont will make no less than 12 (!!) changes to the lineup that beat Racing last week. This will be a Clermont team devoid of most of its best players, who won`t even be on the bench. They will field something closer to a “B” lineup then to their preferred starting XV, with not many impact players set to come on in the second half either.

The visitors have clearly chosen to focus their efforts on next week`s big match at Toulouse, which will be followed by their opening game in the European Champions Cup. They would like to win this today as well, but their selection made it clear that a loss is acceptable.

Clermont just isn`t the same team without Lopez at No.10 and Parra at No.9, who will both be rested. They have amazing chemistry together and make most things happen for the visitors. They are also the best kickers Clermont has (although new signing Laidlaw is on the same level, but he`s not in his best form after an injury). Completely breaking up that partnership can`t bring anything good, and there are 5-6 other key players missing as well!

With an improvised lineup, which also features an experimental combination at the crucial 9-10 positions of Fernandez and Laidlaw (who have no experience playing together), Clermont would have difficulty winning on the road against any Top 14 team. And Castres is one of the league’s good teams, particularly at home.

Home court advantage is key in Top 14 and we can look at last year’s records, when Castres was 11-0-2 at home, while Clermont was 4-3-6 on the road. One of Castres’ home wins came against Clermont, 26-16, with Clermont being in top form and fielding a much better lineup back then.

Even if they are an inferior club, Castres at home have the quality to beat Clermont on any given day. But when we are talking about such a weakened Clermont lineup, the hosts become clear cut favorites and only a poor showing from their part could cost them the points. They will definitely view this as a perfect opportunity to get back on track after struggling in the start of the season and playing two consecutive matches away from home.

I`m surprised odds on Castres haven`t dropped more since it became clear that Clermont will rest almost all of its best players, I think it`s an oversight from the part of the bettors. Look for the hosts to be the better organized and disciplined side, and they should win this by about 7-12 points. My tip is a Castres victory and I reckon a 9 unit bet makes sense here, odds for a home win should never be above 1.40 in these circumstances IMO. Prediction: Castres – Clermont 27 – 18.

Pick: Castres
Odds: 1.58 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.22
Event date: 1 October