CFR Cluj – Dinamo

CFR Cluj and Dinamo Bucharest square off in the 3rd round of the Romanian Liga 1 and there is value to be taken again in a Dinamo Bucharest match.

CFR Cluj is on the back of a horrible 1-3 loss at Botosani, after opening the Liga 1 season with a 2-0 home win over Concordia Chiajna. CFR also played in the Romanian Supercup, where they lost 0-1 to Astra in an ugly match on a horrible pitch. The hosts are one of the decent teams in Romania, but they are struggling with finances and can`t really hope for more than to attack a playoff spot.

The visitors started the season in excellent form under new manager Ioan Andone, scoring 6 goals in 2 rounds to defeat reigning champions Astra and Liga 1 newcomers ACS Poli. Nevertheless, Dinamo is not expected to maintain this league leading rhythm after losing a number of key players in the summer. The team played well in the first round, but Astra has proved to be a joke in the start of this season and the match against ACS Poli was poor. As usual, Ioan Andone has been unable to properly organize his defense, but on the other hand Dinamo’s attacking game is working very well.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams are happy to report a clean bill of health and will be able to field their best lineups.

CFR Cluj: Marc – Tiago Lopes, Larie, Muresan, Camora – Petrucci, Juan Carlos – Jakolis, Lopez, Paun – Bud

Dinamo Bucharest: Branescu – Romera, Marc, Mevlja, Filip – Hanca, Busuladzic, Palic – Rotariu, Gnohere, Lazar

I wonder how much longer will the bookies put out these crazy odds for goals in Dinamo’s matches. As I stated many times in the last few weeks, Dinamo’s manager, Ioan Andone, is a goldmine for overs. His teams always play attacking football, but he does not know how to organize a defense. A few years ago in his previous stint at Dinamo he was recording results like 5-4 or 3-3 pretty often. This season he also has poor individual defenders, there are some huge weak links at the back and high scoring matches will occur most often than not.

My above statements were already proven in the first two rounds, with Dinamo winning 4-1 against reigning champions Astra and 2-1 against ACS Poli Timisoara. ACS Poli is the weakest team in the league and was given a Liga 1 spot days before the Dinamo match, they came to Bucharest with no preparation and even they managed to score a goal against Andone’s defense.

It`s not just about Dinamo here, as CFR is also a team that plays pretty free flowing football for Romanian standards. They are not particularly high scoring, but they do find the net pretty often, they have 3 or 4 players with technical ability up front, way above Romanian standards, who can create chances and make the difference. They play a balanced brand of football, but they are more attacking than defensive minded and in the first two rounds there were 6 goals scored in their matches.

The two teams met a couple of months ago in the 2015 Romanian Cup final and CFR won in Bucharest via penalties, after a 2-2 draw in regular time. It was an eventful match, with many high scoring chances – and that was with a more defensive minded Dinamo, in a match with very high stakes. A high scoring match looks much more likely in this one.

My tip here is over 2,5 goals to be scored. Both to score is the safer option, but the difference in odds is too big and I don`t want to lose all value, so I am sticking with the over. This really seems like a 10 unit bet for me and despite my poor form I will push it with maximum stakes.

All logic suggest a bet on goals and while that doesn’t guarantee anything, nor will Dinamo be involved only in high scoring games this season, the fact that value is up for grams is clear. Hopefully everything will go according to plan. Prediction: CFR Cluj – Dinamo Bucharest 2-2.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.28 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 12.80
Event date: 8 August