CFR Cluj – Jagodina

CFR Cluj vs. Jagodina in the first leg of the 2nd Europa League qualifying round. The Romanians are the favorites according to the odds but it won’t be easy.

CFR Cluj was incredibly lucky to play European football this season. They finished 6th in the league and normally only the first 3 places qualify from Europe in Romania. But due to Astra winning the Cup and Dinamo (4th place) + Vaslui (5th place) having financial restrictions, CFR Cluj was awarded the last Europa League spot. The Cluj team used to dominate Romanian football a few years ago but the owners did not invest so much money lately and they became just a team who finishes in the first half of the table. This summer they lost 8 players (many key) and signed 10 (some good, some not), so for sure coach Miriuta will have his hands full and they will need some time to play at their best level – specially that most signings are foreign.

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Jagodina finished on 3rd place in Serbia behind giants Red Star and Partizan. These two teams are at a totally different level than the other teams in Serbia, but Jagodina is the best of the rest. An analysis of the visiting team says that they have a good midfield and are very good in set pieces with a lot of tall players. Jagodina sold its main goalscorer in France at Toulouse in the summer.

At the moment CFR Cluj is probably in the worst state since 7-8 years ago. They lost a lot of quality in the recent past and lost many key players this summer. The replacements will need time to settle and prove themselves. This being the first game of the season for both teams, I expect Jadogina to have better chemistry while CFR will struggle to find a playing style and rhythm. Considering the quality gap is not so big, and that CFR is a team without fans (so home court advantage diminishes), the visitors stand a clear fighting chance today and it is clearly worth to try a bet on them at these odds. I also think that Jagodina being so strong at set pieces is a big advantage against a team that clearly will not have the best understanding between players at corners or free kicks. Quality wise CFR is still better, but my tip is Jagodina x2 double chance due to the arguments presented in the analysis above. Correct score prediction: CFR Cluj – Jagodina 1-1.

Pick: x2
Odds: 2.35 @ Bwin
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.45
Event date: 17 July