Chelsea – Arsenal

Saturday afternoon football in the Premier League, with Chelsea and Arsenal squaring off in the most anticipated clash of the round and a traditional London derby.

The Blues got a huge breath of fresh air with their 4-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Champions League. Mourinho`s men played a good game, albeit inferior opposition and will get some much needed confidence ahead of the Arsenal match. Chelsea had a horrible start in the Premier League, winning just 4 points in the first 5 rounds, currently sitting on the 17th place. The hosts lost 3-1 against Everton last weekend.

One week ago Arsenal was seen as a solid favorite in this match – the Gunners were playing pretty good football, while Chelsea was struggling big time. However, the first Champions League round changed the view over this clash, as Chelsea won in convincing fashion, while Arsenal managed to lose against Dinamo Zagreb – and they deserved to lose as well. Indeed, Wenger rested 5-6 regulars, but he sent a very strong team and Arsenal really has no excuse for that defeat, even if Giroud was sent off in the 40th minute. In the Premier League Arsenal has been pretty good so far, but they are still 5 points off Man City and have struggled up front. The defense has been what held the Gunners together so far.

Bet on Chelsea vs Arsenal at Betsson and claim your 25 Euro welcome freebet now!

Team news & lineups:

Courtois and Willian are out for Chelsea, with Oscar, Falcao and Pedro being doubtful. Arsenal continues to miss Wilshere, Welbeck and Rosicky. Mertesacker should be able to come back if Wenger decides to play him instead of Gabriel.

Chelsea: Begovic – Ivanovic, Terry, Cahill, Azpilicueta – Matic, Fabregas – Ramires, Oscar, Hazard – Costa

Arsenal: Cech – Bellerin, Gabriel, Koscielny, Monreal – Coquelin, Cazorla – Ramsey, Ozil, Sanchez – Walcott

A tight game is expected and it`s hard to believe either side will take too many risks. Mourinho can not afford to lose this game, he will try and make sure he at least gets the draw, pressing with caution for an eventual close win – a classic approach for him actually. Wenger will be aware of his dismal record against Mourinho and we saw the French manager being very prudent and tentative in the last meetings against the Blues, especially after that 0-6 drubbing Chelsea gave Arsenal two years ago.

Some interesting stats show us that the last three matches between Chelsea and Arsenal (and 5 of the last 6) saw under 2,5. Also, the last time both teams scored in a direct meeting was 7 matches ago. While stats rarely tell the whole story, it`s hard to believe that goals will start flying exactly now – when both sides are in a bit of a struggle, when Arsenal is defending better than ever (and struggling up front more than ever) and when nobody can afford to lose.

The odds on the under / over market are delicious and my tip will be under 2,75 goals to be scored. Given the fact that the 2,75 also provides a small safety net in case 3 goals will be scored, I reckon it`s a good idea to go with maximum stakes on this one. Note that Chelsea might miss a couple of key attacking players and Mourinho`s intention to play Ramires alongside Matic and Fabregas is a clear indication of a careful approach, if not straight up defensive. Prediction: Chelsea – Arsenal 1-0.

Pick: under 2,75 goals
Odds: 1.84 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.40
Event date: 19 September