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The 0-0 result in the first leg means that now Chelsea is the odds-on favorite to go trough to the Champions League final, but Mourinho’s side will know they can’t afford any defensive slip ups if they are to knock out Atletico Madrid.
Chelsea has been in shaky form recently but one thing has always worked well for them even in the toughest times: their home performances. Even though Chelsea lost the last game at Stamford Bridge against Sunderland (1-2), it was their first defeat on home soil since September 2013 when they were beaten by Basel! Since then, Chelsea had 18 wins and 2 draws, including winning the last 7 games before the Sunderland accident without conceding a single goal. Another bright spot for Chelsea is their short term form – after the 0-0 draw in Madrid they routed Liverpool 2-0 at Stamford Bridge despite resting most key players!
Atletico Madrid is coming of a 1-0 win at Valencia, reaching a statline of 11 wins and 2 draws in the last 13 games. Atletico’s defense has worked just great this season and especially lately, with the visitors on a run of 6 consecutive matches without allowing a single goal. Surely the Madrid side is one of the most in-form teams in Europe right now and will know that if they manage to score at Stamford Bridge that might well get them the tickets to the final. Atletico was the better team in the first leg but wasn`t able to break down Chelsea’s defensive wall.
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Team news & lineups
Chelsea will miss Mikel, Lampard and Cech for this game, aside Matic and Salah who are of course ineligible. Atletico Madrid has a single squad issue: Gabi is suspended.
Chelsea: Schwarzer – Azpilicueta, Terry, Cahill, Ivanovic – Ramires, Luiz – Oscar, Willian, Hazard – Eto’o
Atletico Madrid: Courtois – Juanfran, Miranda, Godin, Felipe Luis – Garcia, Gabi, Tiago, Koke – Villa, Costa
Two defensive geniuses like Mourinho and Simeone going against eachother in a match with huge stakes, each team knowing that if they concede a goal it could be the end of the road – well, this has an under 2,5 goals bet written all over it. However, I find the best value in the Both To Score market – odds of 1.70 for NO, as opposed to the 1.50 we are getting for the under. Expect a tight, rugged encounter, with patience being the key word and no risks taken from either side. Chelsea will be a little bit more offensive minded than in the first game but still keeping the most focus on not conceding goals, while Atletico will be happy to count on its best weapon – their defense. Regarding qualification I think Chelsea will edge it due to their superior experience, I don`t believe Atletico has the offensive firepower to score on Stamford Bridge, but my tip is Both teams to score – No. Prediction: Chelsea – Atletico Madrid 1-0. Regarding where to bet, I recommend going with Betfair on this one, as they are providing by far the best value even though the odds are changing constantly on the betting exchange.
Pick: Both to score – No
Odds: 1.76 @ Betfair
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.84
Event date: 30 April
