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Concordia Chiajna was set to play in the second league this season, but due to dubious regulations in Romanian football they were awarded a place in the Liga 1 by the Tribunal Arbitras du Sport in Lausanne. The hosts are currently on 15th place but have three games in hand. They impressed so far with 2 wins and 2 draws, a remarkable performance considering they have a weak squad and were expecting to play in a lower division. Nevertheless, it’s unlikely that they will keep up this form and they will most probably get relegated at the end of the season.
Otelul Galati provided a shock to win the Liga 1 title in 2011 but since then they have been on a downtrend. This season Otelul is 13th place with 9 points in 7 games and they are barely over the relegation zone. The visitors will most certainly stay up, as they have Liga 1 quality, but a top half finish is unlikely. I have to say that Otelul Galati are slight favorites here, they are better than Concordia and are in need for points.
Both these teams are considered to be defensive ones, especially the visitors, but this season goals have been scored at will in their matches. Concordia Chiajna boosts a goal difference of 5-7 in 4 games and Otelul Galati is 7-11 in 7 games. Concordia has 2 overs in the last three matches, Otelul has 4 overs in the last 6 matches.
The hosts actually played attacking football so far, they can`t be considered a defensive team anymore, while Otelul is still a rather cautious side but has long lost it`s tight back line. These two sides played together earlier this year in April and it was a 2-1 win for Otelul. On the other hand, in 2011 and 2012 there were two 0-0 draws and one 1-0 result, but at the time Chiajna and Otelul were both more defense – oriented.
I am a big fan of betting on unders in Romania because of the poor football level, but the way these teams have played this season, the odds for over are ludicrous. Also, Otelul wants a win to climb up the table, they will not settle for a draw, and the first goal will really open up the match no matter who scores it. I don`t see why there can`t be at least three goals here. There are at least 50% chances for an over 2,5, so at this price I`ll happily wager on a high scoring encounter and with some pretty high stakes too. This is clearly a value bet based on the facts and arguments, and it has good chances to also be a winner. My prediction is 2-2 or 1-2.
Pick: over 2,5
Odds: 2.30 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 23 September
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 2 for 4 in the Romanian Liga 1 this season
