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The Bulls and the Cavs will square off in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference semifinals at United Center, Chicago. Cleveland leads the series 3-2, coming back after being led 2-1. Six of the seven games were decided by 7 points or less, the sole exception being Cavs’ 15 point Game 2 win, so this series is as even as it gets.
Chicago is looking pretty sharp out there on the court, despite struggling with injuries. Rose is obviously not at 100%, Noah is always a bit hurt and Gasol missed the last two games. The Spaniard should come back in this one, but he will most likely play limited minutes. The Bulls were in pole position to win the series, leading 2-1 with a win on the road and had their chances in Games 4 and Games 5 – they did not take them and find themselves in an absolute must win situation today.
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Cleveland, even without Kevin Love, seemed to be the slightly better team in this series and there’s clearly one name responsible for that – Lebron James. Without playing his absolute best basketball, Lebron was clutch in key situations and carried this team on his shoulders. The Cavs are coming after two straight wins, have the momentum and they know that they have to finish off these Bulls right now. They don’t need a Game 7, even at home, especially with Gasol getting healthier.
This series is on an edge and this will be likely decided by a couple of plays – with Lebron obviously the most likely to make them. I also expect a good gameplan from David Blatt, he is such a good coach and has been receiving a lot of unnecessary stick – you don’t win at this level without a good coach. Cleveland proved they can win in Chicago and both games at the United Center were super tight in this series. It should be the same today, with Cleveland as the slight favorite – something that the odds don’t reflect.
My tip is Cleveland to win straight up, but if you want a safer bet you could go with the +3 spread. It seems low, but in this tight series 3 points mean much more than it seems. Prediction: Chicago Bulls – Cleveland Cavaliers 92-95.
Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers
Odds: 2.22 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.76
Event date: 15 May
All things being equal, I would slightly shade the Bulls in this game as this feels like, and deserves to be, a 7 game series. However, it mostly depends on how effective Pau Gasol can be. He is an integral part to their offense, allowing both Rose and Butler to work off of him instead of just going one on one. Pau is one the best passers in the league as a big man, and his ability to pop off pick and rolls and consistently knock down 17 foot jump shots makes the Bulls offense a lot more dangerous. Without him, Gibson is forced into this role and this further depletes their bench. So this game screams for an in-game wager, as bettors should watch the beginning of the game carefully, and look to exploit and potential weakness as this game plays out. Not to mention this game should have many ebbs and flows, so there will be potential to bet both sides at a positive spread, guaranteeing positive cash flow if one wishes.
You overestimate Dave Blatt as much as you underestimate Doc Rivers. While Blatt has a decent pedigree, his coaching this year has been somewhat mediocre, culminating with him getting extremely lucky that the refs didn’t give him a technical foul for calling a timeout he didn’t have at the end of game 4 which would have given the Bulls the game and a 3-1 series lead, not to mention idiotically calling a play that Lebron himself overruled. Yes, Blatt actually called for Lebron to inbound that pass instead of shoot. The thing to note about that is not that it actually happened, but that Lebron chose to tell the media after the game. Players usually don’t do that and keep that information in-house, but he chose to tell the world. Lebron has basically been the de-facto coach of this team for a few months and unless they win the championship this year Blatt will most likely be dismissed. Especially with potential quality coaches and big names available as Thibs and Cal.
My advice to your readers is to either wager on this one only in-game and small stakes at that. Given how limited the King’s sidekick, Irving, looks and the fact that refs know that they got the Gibson ejection wrong, I expect the Bulls to get a few favorable calls. But honestly, this one could go either way, so watch an react if one chooses.
My best advice is the bet the other game which for all intensive purposes looks like a virtual lock. The Rockets have only played one solid game the whole series and their defense is an absolute joke. They typically produced more turnovers than Pillsbury and despite McHale’s pleading, they suffer from a lack of focus and effort except for the last game. I only give them about a 10 percent chance to win this one, and I think that’s optimistic.
I always hate giving big points, and have already locked about $1k in ML parlays that have already hit except for this game, but I think it may be a blowout as many of the other games in this series have been. If forced to wager more now I probably would buy the line at -6 or better yet, hope and pray that the Rockets can get out to an early lead so that I could make an in-game wager at an advantageous pointspread, much like Golden St in the first quarter last night. Look to capitalize on any moneyline around -200 and under or a spread of -5 or less.
Good luck to you and your readers as I try to give back where I can. Sorry for the late write-up but maybe readers will be able to capitalize on the later game. Another strong play from me.
1st of all I have to congratulate you (and thank you) again for these excellent comments. I feel they bring fantastic value to our picks, even if these ones came maybe too late as you said, at least for Cleveland.
Pau is key, no doubt about that. As I suggested, I`m pretty sure Cavs have extra motivation to finish this one today, before Pau gets closer to 100%.
I admit I might be harsh on Doc, I don’t feel he`s as good as advertised (just one title with those Celtics? and if Bynum was healthy, maybe zero titles), but I might be wrong – especially after seeing the Clippers Spurs series. But Blatt, man, he`s a basketball genius. I was mesmerized by his teams in Europe, I have never seen such teamwork at any level, maybe only with Pop. I always thought Blatt would be huge in the NBA. Similar to Messina, who acts as Pop’s assistant, only Blat is better. I say give David time and he will be at least one of the Top 50 coaches ever in the NBA. It might sound really stupid now and I might be wrong, but the guy is good.
I feel that you Americans (you are American, right?) love your superstars a lot. I saw the US media and I can see your comment, you are just shocked and stunned that Lebron was called to inbound the ball, something that may seem silly for Europeans like me. I think it`s your culture. This is not a shot at Americans, you have every right to feeI that way. But do you think JR Smith doesn`t have the same chances to make a shot if the play is called right? I think Blatt wanted to run a surprise play (remember, he ran a few this season successfully), but he was clever enough to not let ego get the best of him. He conceded to Lebron and it ended up well.
These issues with Lebron going public, pushing Blatt and so on could be an indicative of something, but I think they are just too hyped up by the media. Lebron always spoke highly of Blatt. If he had no respect, he could have just kept his mouth shut and ‘no comment’.
The timeout, yes, it was pathetic. I wonder how Blatt could have shown his face in the locker room if refs saw it and they lost that game. He also had a couple more mistakes like this in this season. I think one can say that he’s learning the NBA, but you can definitely argue that at this level you CAN NOT do this.
Coaching is underrated and you CAN NOT get into the conference finals with a bad coach. Anybody who thinks this team plays by itself is dead wrong. It was not easy to create a team with so many players coming in, even if one was Lebron James. If Byron Scott was coaching Cleveland, with all due respect to him, they would not be here. I think the only case one can make is that Tyronn Lue is the real reason for success. I disagree, of course.
I agree with the Clippers input but I was a bit afraid of the big spread and I feel there`s no value in the odds after Clippers dominated this series – the spread might be a tad too high. Buying points or waiting for an early Rockets run is a good idea.
I never, ever thought Clippers would make a run this year. The way they are looking now, I fancy them to win it all. Seems like Stephen A. Smith knows better basketball than me :).
I agree Blatt has had tremendous success at the international level, and as I mentioned, he has a great pedigree, studying under Pete Carril. It’s just that coaching in the NBA has many different facets, including managing egos of superstars. He didn’t have a poor season, but I wouldn’t say he had a great one either. Could he have done as good of a job with the Celtics no-name roster as Brad Stevens did? I’m not sure. One thing I know, if he makes another mistake like that timeout and he’ll be lucky he’s not fired before the end of the playoffs.
Your play is looking good so far. While Gasol came out strong, with him on the bench and Gibson picking up a 3rd foul, the Bulls went back to one on one basketball and could make a shot in the 2nd. Difference seems to be the 3 point shooting. Also Thompson played great in the 1st and Shumpert, Smith, and Dellavedova played great in tghe 2nd. In fact, Dellavedova has played great the whole series. A difference maker for them with Kyrie hobbled. Both teams can’t score to start the 3rd. Bulls need to make a run pretty soon or else this game is over. It’s getting close for my time to wager.
Good luck again to you.
Fair point about Blatt, I can`t argue with that. I do think he could have done a great job with a lesser roster (that`s what he signed up for initially), but you never know.
it`s pretty much over, 19 points right now. +10 rebounds also helped a lot, but overall Cavs have been better in pretty much every aspect. Or Bulls have been worse – this seems more accurate.
Good luck and hope you make the right choice. I think I`ll take the spread on LA with a small-medium stake.
PS: I talked about coaching being underrated and I remembered this small interview we made some time ago, maybe it could interest you: https://www.betdistrict.com/basketball-betting-insight-from-a-professional-player
But as a note. Lebron is 7-1 when up 3-2 in a series and 23-9 in potential close-out games. So if Gasol is ineffective or very limitted, I might look towards the Cavs direction for that in-game wager. I probably will wait for the 3rd quarter to bet.
But Lebron needs some help. He’s only getting it from Mosgov and Thompson in this series and Smith for one quarter. The King can win some games and a series or 2 by himself, but he can’t win a championship like this. That is why he left for Miami several years ago. The Cavaliers injuries puts so much pressure on him to perform and play at an elite level for virtually the entire game. Its very hard to do this for 16 wins in the playoffs.
LOL, I think you make too many assumptions about Americans. My basketball and domestic sports knowledge is 2nd to none. I watch most of these regular season games and all of the playoffs, and have done so for almost 20 years. It would be as if I thought I had as much knowledge of Romania Liga 1 as others here. I don’t underestimate coaching I’m just not sure if Blatt is the right man for the job. Coaching is different in the NBA than any other basketball league. You need to have the players respect. If you don’t your message won’t get through and the players will not execute no matter how good a coach you are. Many good coaches have not had the success they should have because of this. It doesn’t mean they are not great coaches in and of themselves. You need to be able to manage egos and maximize your stars’ talents. The NBA is a star driven league, especially in the playoffs where benches and rotations shrink. Aside from the occasional in-bound play, playoff coaching is mostly about defensive adjustments motivating your team to give maximum effort. Teams can be very even, getting the most out of yours is what the best coaches do.
Anyways I missed my opportunity to bet on this one as I never saw a favorable line in the 2nd half. I needed the Bulls to make a run to make a pro-Cavs play early in the 4th but it never happened. Cavs ran away with it. When Kyrie went down Dellavedova stepped in and kicked some Bull’s ass. Not sure anybody saw that coming. Mathew was the teams leading scorer.
Nice call for you. Congrats. I enjoy reading through the analysis here on tennis and football even if I don’t always agree with the picks. You are one of my go to sites for tennis and football information. Thank you again.
Now I let’s see if Blake Griffin, CP3, and the Clippers can dominate as I expect. I’m 5-1 on such big plays in these playoffs. Good luck on your small play. I hope they cover for you
Obviously I didn`t want to “school” you about the NBA and the last thing on my mind is to bash Americans (or any other country).
At a closer look you can see that I avoided to address you personally when talking about technical things, like “coaching is overrated”. I was speaking generally. Far from me to question your basketball knowledge or to take a shot at Americans. Maybe I overreached a bit, it`s not nice to judge anybody/anything, it was just an opinion.
As I told you in the past on a tipsters’ pick comment, I feel that in the age of information we, European NBA fans, have all the knowledge that you Americans have. You can`t get info on Romania Liga 1, we have all the info available for NBA. But that doesn`t mean that you don`t have an edge – you do, and that has to be respected.
I get what you are saying about Blatt. Failing in the Nba doesn`t mean that you are a bad coach. But succeeding in the NBA means you are a good coach. You can`t succeed as a bad coach. We`ll see if he succeeds.
So far Clippers are looking great, so that`s a good call. Hope you claim some solid profit this evening :D.
Thanks for the vote of confidence, even if we are doing horrible right now (the editors).
wow, scratch that, clips totally blew it in this 2nd quarter.
The Clippers are a petty good defensive team that just gave up 37 points in the 2nd quarter. Doc will rip them over halftime so expect a better defensive effort in the 2nd half. Houston also made a lot of 3’s and I don’t expect them to continue this the whole game although its always possible. But honestly, the biggest problem id the officials were giving Houston a few calls on Harden drives. He shot 11 free throws in the first half. That shouldn’t have happened, both from the Clippers and the officials perspective. Expect adjustments from Doc.
However, the Rockets are at least showing solid effort, especially key role players like Jones, Ariza, and Brewer. Their shots are falling. Yet despite Harden with 20 points on 11 free throws and a tremendous effort from them so far, The Clippers are still up by a bucket at halftime. If the Rockets can continue this torrid shooting and Harden can continue to get these calls from the refs and get to the line, the game will be close. If not, LA should be able to pull away will it. Blake is such a huge mismatch their is nobody on Houston that can guard him. The Clippers need to continue go to him and not just settle for jump shots. They are best when they are attacking both in the open floor and pick and roll. They also should knock down more 3’s in the 2nd half.
I put my money where my mouth was, investing another hundred and a half at -4.5 at the TV timeout when Houston was up by 5. I just hope the refs don’t continue to give Harden these phantom calls while they ignore Blake getting hacked on the arm while dunking on top of Terry. But in all likelihood, your buddy Doc should be able to make the necessary defensive adjustments as good coaches do, and send the Clippers to the conference finals for the first time in franchise history.
harden always gets calls. personally, I don`t like that player. you can`t stop him, either he gets layups, or bogus calls.
right now you`re on track (68-82) and aside for another Clips meltdown, seems you`re in for a solid profit.
Dwight just tackled Blake, That has to be a flagrant for christ’s sake. They should also give Dwight a flagrant foul for the suit he wore to the game, which was purple
hahaaa :))
and its not that you don’t necessarily have access to the same information I do. American sports and media is broadcast all over the globe, so I’m sure you are able to get most of it, although you can’t get everything. But really the area which I would assume the difference is the timing of the games. They happen at the evening and weekends for me so I’m able to watch almost every game that I chose. The games are happening at off times for you, so unless you are able to devote a lot of overnight and early AM times for these games its difficult to find the time to watch.
As a comparison, I am able to get all of the major tennis on the Tennis channel, but coverage may start at 5 am my time, like today from Rome. So I don’t usually watch the early matches before 8 am even though I may wager, like today.
I am also able to get a decent amount pf EPL, Bundesliga, Serie A, Primera División, Ligue 1, and of course Champions and Europa league, but again the games can come pretty early, especially on the weekends, so I may miss the ones that happen at 7:30 am my time, especially if I’ve had a beer or 2 the night before. I’m sure it’s not so different from you, although you probably have a little more access to our coverage than I do to yours.
I am a little bit different. I am a Romanian, but I live according to the US timezone. I basically sleep in the day and work / do stuff in the night. I might go to sleep later than you today. So it doesn`t apply to me personally, but obviously your point is generally correct. Watching the games is very important.
LOL getting dicey. As Scooby Doo would say, Rut-Roe.
Amazing thing about this run is Harden is on the bench. CP3 needs to take over and score
now I think I’m in trouble. LA need s a bucket ASAP
32-10 in the 4th quarter so far. yikes. just had to hedge my bet to win $400 on the Rockets
wow, mate … it`s gotten from bad to worse in a matter of seconds.Spread looks impossible aside from an overtime. I`m shocked.
Incredible. I feel for you, this was a bet that should have been won. At least we get great odds on the Clippers in Game 7.
well, good news you traded for a win eventually
Yes, believe it or not, I will may go back to the same well in game 7. The Clippers are a better team. They just tanked in the 4th like the Bulls did in the 2nd half tonight. This was one of the most stunning comebacks in NBA history, and with the MVP runner-up on the bench. Hard to explain, especially since they quit on this same Forum floor last game and Houston was 0-49 in the playoffs when trailing by 15 points in the 4th quarter. Maybe LA took their foot off the gas and couldn’t re accelerate, maybe they were just too tired, maybe they were jinxed from their team history, or maybe I jinxed them by opening my mouth here. Any way you slice it was crazy and cost me about $600. So instead of being back over $10k at 5Dimes I’m back at $8.5k and back to the grindstone. Lately, every time I try to go back over that watershed mark I’ve gotten some bad luck. The last time was a week ago with Napoli at home losing on a non-offsides call to Dnipro.
Anyways, sorry for the bad intel, but honestly, I’d do it again as the play was solid. That’s why its gambling. Anything can happen. Good luck this weekend.
Surely a combination of factors. Things like this happen sometimes. Clippers should win Game 7, this was a fluke.
We lose, we win, we have bad luck, we have good luck. I`m familiar with hitting a ‘border’ when you start to struggle, can`t get past it – it`s a very delicate moment that needs to be dealt with carefully. Important fact is that you are around your bankroll, not losing half your balance. Good luck mate!
Don’t know if LA can recover mentally. This was a historic meltdown. I will have to see how they react in the next couple days. The good news for them is that they get an extra day off as they don’t play until Sunday. They, in particular CP3, need that extra day off.
true, but that was also the case against San Antonio, after San Antonio got the lead 3-2. And they did it a couple of years back against Memphis in a game 7.
Indeed this meltdown was unprecedented, but after the San Antonio series, I have no doubt about the character of this team. And I think this “mental factor” will influence the punters to bet on Houston, which means better odds for Clippers.