Clermont – Saracens

Clermont and reigning champions Saracens will square off at Murrayfield, Glasgow, in the grand final of the European Rugby Champions Cup.

Clermont, who finished the regular season 2nd in the French Top 14, claimed a 27-22 win in the semifinals against Leinster in order to advance to this final. The French have been excellent overall this season but they did have serious problems beating Leinster, needing two late drop goals by Camille Lopez in order to claim the 5 point win.

Saracens finished the regular season on the third place in England, mostly because of a mid season injury crisis, but they have been excellent in the last couple of months, once they regained full fitness. The Sarries were breathtaking in the Champions Cup Ko stage, putting on masterclass performances to beat Glasgow by 15 points and the strong Munster by 16 points away.

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Team news & lineups:

Saracens will miss Maitland, recently injured in training, and that is pretty much the only new injury worry for either team. Both clubs rested their best players last weekend.

Clermont: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 David Strettle, 13 Aurélien Rougerie, 12 Rémi Lamerat, 11 Nick Abendanon, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Fritz Lee, 7 Peceli Yato, 6 Damien Chouly (c), 5 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 4 Arthur Iturria, 3 Davit Zirakashvili, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Raphael Chaume

Saracens: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Brad Barritt (c), 11 Chris Wyles, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Richard Wigglesworth, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Jackson Wray, 6 Michael Rhodes, 5 George Kruis, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola

Saracens won 8 consecutive games in all competitions before losing 15-35 to Wasps last weekend, but they rested their main guys in that game, which was meaningless for them and very important for the league leaders Wasps. Clermont has been less impressive in terms of form recently, winning some close games, but they did beat the Top 14 leaders La Rochelle last weekend – with both teams resting players.

This is set to be a very entertaining clash between two very good teams, both of them being deserving finalists. However, while Saracens steamrolled opponents on their road to the final, Clermont did have some problems. The semifinals were pretty telling, with Clermont and Saracens meeting two equally strong Irish provinces. While Saracens won by 16 points away against Munster, Clermont barely won by 5 at home against Leinster.

Obviously the results in the semifinals don`t matter much coming into this game, but fact is Saracens played better rugby in the Champions Cup KO stages. They have a better roster and, very importantly, a better bench – which should make the difference in the last 20 minutes if the Sarries will need it.

This Sarecens team simply doesn`t have any weaknesses and the level of rugby they played in the last couple of months was borderline perfect. They proved themselves capable to steadily break down and beat the best teams in the world routinely by comfortable margins.

Looking at how they match up against Clermont, it`s reasonable to expect Sarries to be slightly better in every aspect of the game – aside from maybe kicking, where the two sides are pretty much equal. It`s hard to see how and where could Clermont find solutions which would allow them to win the game.

When all is said and done, there`s just too much quality in this Saracens team. They are the better side, they have a better bench and have played better in the last few months – showing superior chemistry and tactical discipline. What`s more, they have championship pedigree and never shown any signs to suggest they could choke in the final (as opposed to Clermont, who already lost twice in the last act).

I expect Clermont to put up a fight, but Saracens should find a way to win, as they always do. The odds don`t look great, but they are fair and I think the straight win is a smarter bet here than getting greedy and risking a handicap. I`m backing the Sarries to lift the trophy for a second year in a row, my tip is Saracens to win. Prediction: Clermont – Saracens 16 – 23.

Pick: Saracens
Odds: 1.45 @ Bwin
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.05
Event date: 13 May