Cavaliers – Pistons

The Cavs will host Detroit Pistons in Cleveland in Game 2 of this Eastern Conference first round playoff series, with the Cavs leading 1-0 after winning the first game by 5 points.

First seed Cleveland did well to win a close Game 1, proving that they can play team ball in a night when Lebron James only shot 17 times. It was a test of character for the Cavs against a resilient Detroit side wich played a very good match and the victory will surely give Cleveland a boost for the remaining of this playoff series.

Detroit (8th seed) gave Cleveland a huge fight in the first match and it might be interpreted as a sign that the series will be closer than expected, but I doubt it. Fact is Detroit played one of its best matches of the year, shooting absolutely lights out. They shot 51% from the field (37/73) and 52% from three point range (15/29) – much, much better percentages that what Cavs shot. Even so, Detroit still lost by 5 points.

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We`re talking here about a Cavs team that is one of the main title favorites, while Detroit barely managed to reach the playoffs and had a percentage of well below 50% on the road in the regular season.

It`s very unlikely for Detroit to have another out of this world shooting night, especially as they are not usually a particularly good 3 point shooting team. If they lost by 5 playing so well (and without Lebron needing to take over for the Cavs), I expect them to lose more heavily if they can’t repeat that rare performance.

Look for a more normal game tonight, with Detroit lowering its shooting percentage and with Lebron being more incisive, trying to get more to the basket after preferring to facilitate for Love and Irving in Game 1.

As far as I`m concerned, the point spread set by the bookmakers is pretty reasonable at 10 points and I believe the Cavs will cover it, taking a 2-0 lead to Detroit. However, I will buy a point for extra security and tip Cleveland to cover the 9 point spread at very good odds of 1.81. Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers – Detroit Pistons 107 – 90.

Pick: Cavaliers -9
Odds: 1.81 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.48
Event date: 21 April