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After being blown out and totally overmatched in the first two games back in Oakland, the Cavs bounced back with a dominant 30 point win at home in Game 3 of these NBA finals. They will try to even the series at 2-2 at home and they are 2 point spread favorites to do just that, after being disconsidered by a lot of people, myself included.
Cleveland seemed to have no answer for Golden State’s game in the first two matches. Not only did Cavs lost by a combined record margin the first two games of an NBA final, but they simply seemed unable to find solutions against Golden State’s gameplan and against their bench. However, with LeBron James leading the way, Cavs won Game 3 at home by 30 points. Kevin Love did not play in Game 3 and many suggested that it was the main reason for which Cavs looked difference, as Love (for all his qualities) hurt them defensively. Myself, I think that`s pretty superficial. Love is questionable for Game 4, personally I don`t think he will play.
The 73-9 Golden State Warriors had an off night in Game 3, looking slow and shaky since the start, as they went down 0-9 in the first couple of minutes. It was an uphill battle from there but horrible shooting and defending in the second half let Cavs run away with the game. Take nothing away from the Cavaliers, who were extremely aggressive and defended with brilliance at times, running like crazy to deny shots. The Warriors and Steve Kerr definitely have to work on avoiding being trapped so much when attacking.
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I would be shocked if Game 4 will look anything like Game 3. Cavs had a great night, with highly inconsistent shooters like Jefferson, Smith or Irving having big nights. Tristan Thompson had his best game of the year and his rebounding was the main reason for which Cavs held on to the lead in the first half. Meanwhile, Golden State played poorly and their superstars had dreadful nights. Klay Thompson was hurt early on, while Steph Curry (who lost his rhythm early, being in foul trouple) was not just a non factor, he was a liability. It`s safe to say it was Curry’s worst game in years. Fortunately, Curry picked up the slack and played some top basketball in his last few minutes on the floow – not enough to redeem himself, but enough to gain rhythm for Game 4 and that might prove important. It actually looked that he was aiming for exactly that, to get his groove for Game 4.
Indeed, Golden State’s superstars Curry and Thompson were a non factor in all three matches, but in the first two it was by choice, as the other guys were playing lights out. In Game 3 Cavs played some great defense, but I just can’t see Curry and Thompson being this bad again. It would be shocking. On the same note, it would also be shocking if Cleveland’s inconsistent shooters will all have big nights again.
The Warriors bench still destroyed Cleveland’s bench 33-15 even in such a blowout loss. This is clearly all about the Warriors starters stepping up and it’s also a question if the Cavs starting 5 will run out of gas. They played big minutes just 2 days ago, ran around like crazy and they are not exactly young. In last year’s NBA finals, Cavs collapsed against this Golden State team starting with Game 4 for these exact reasons.
Golden State is the better team and after a dreadful Game 3, they should figure out pretty quickly what went wrong. They are better coached as well, so I can see them bouncing back in style, as they have done after each and every single loss they suffered this season, with just one exception (against OKC).
I said it throughout the series, this Warriors team seems to hold Cleveland’s number, they match up well against the Cavs. I will continue to ride the Warriors in these finals (especially at such odds) and I believe they will win Game 4. However, Cavs showed character in Game 3, proved they aren`t here just to make up the numbers and are strong at home, so I will keep the stakes honest – still high, as I was initially thinking at 10 units for this one. My tip is Golden State to win straight up, but you can also take the +2 point spread if you like, as it could be a close game. Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers – Golden State Warriors 95 – 98.
Pick: Warriors
Odds: 2.18 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.44
Event date: 11 June
