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Club Brugge hosts KV Mechelen in the 22nd round of the Belgium Pro League, the first in 2015. Brugge is a solid favorite at home with average odds of 1.35. The two teams will also meet in the Cup in 4 days at the same venue.
The hosts are the team to beat this year in Belgium … first place, 4 points ahead of Anderlecht and only one defeat all season (coincidentally it was against Mechelen, 1-3). They have by far the best offense and also the best defense. Brugge finished 2014 in fantastic fashion with 2 consecutive wins vs. Genk (4-1) and Lierse (6-0) and also played very well in the winter friendlies. Hosts are clearly in a good moment, they have the best team in Belgium and everything is going their way … so they will have confidence that they can start the second part of the season the way they finished the first.
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Mechelen is one of the worst teams away from home in Belgium … 7 defeats in 10 games tell the story about that. Visitors are on the 11th place, they are a modest side and their only advantage is their fighting spirit. This fighting spirit often allows Mechelen to lose close games or hold out for draws, but that is only valid at home. On the road they are a non factor and 6 of their 7 defeats came by a form of handicap. The visitors have only 1 point in the last 4 away games with a goal difference of 1-9. Also worth noting is that Mechelen’s only points away came against teams placed 12th, 13th and 16th in the standings. Mechelen’s road record is just too poor, they got blown out by every team from the top half of the table this season.
My tip will be Club Brugge to win and cover the 1,25 goal asian handicap. Hosts have all the advantages today, will want to avenge their only loss of the season and they should start 2015 with a big home win vs. a modest opponent … that regularly takes heavy beatings on the road. This, combined with Brugge’s fantastic goalscoring record, should help the hosts not only to win, but also to cover the handicap. Max stakes for me on this bet. Correct score prediction: Club Brugge – KV Mechelen 3-0.
Pick: Club Brugge (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.85 @ Bet365
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.50
Event date: 16 January
