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Local favorite Coco Gauff will take on the red hot Caroline Garcia in the US Open quarterfinals on Tuesday night.
Gauff’s season has been a success so far, highlighted by her final at the French Open (although she benefited from a historically weak draw), and the young American is set to finally break into the Top 10 next week. Gauff also played reasonably well on the American hard courts over the last couple of months, reaching the quarters in San Jose and Toronto, and now again in New York. She has not lost a set at the US Open, defeating Jeanjean, Ruse, Keys and Zhang.
Caroline Garcia is the player to beat right now on the WTA tour. She has been on absolute fire over the last few weeks, winning the title in Cincinnati and currently riding a 12 match winning streak. After her incredible title run in Cincy, she hasn’t lost a single step and brought the same level in New York, destroying all the opposition she faced up to this point (Rakhimova, Kalinskaya, Andreescu, Riske). Over Garcia’s last eight matches, only Sabalenka was able to snatch a set from her.
Gauff leads the H2H 2-0 (both meetings on hard courts), winning last year at Indian Wells and this year in Doha.
I don’t know what it is with Gauff and Grand Slam draws this season, but she has been incredibly lucky to reach the French Open final without meeting a single Top 30 player, and now had another favorable schedule in New York. Even so, she had her problems, particularly in the 4th round against Zhang (7-5 7-5), where an argument could be made that her opponent chocked the match away rather than Gauff winning it.
Meanwhile, Garcia had a more difficult draw, but even so, she was much more dominant, winning all sets 6-4 or less, never looking in doubt.
Listen, Cori Gauff is obviously playing solid and is a dangerous opponent, but I think there’s also a lot of (excessive) hype surrounding the young American. I can’t see how anybody could make a case that she is playing better tennis than Garcia, especially after she struggled so much in the previous round. Caroline is the better player right now. And not only is she playing better tennis, but I think this is actually a good matchup for her. Yes, Gauff leads the H2H 2-0, but this is a completely different version of Garcia. Her ability to attack on return will create havoc on Gauff’s second delivery, and she also plays in a way that will deny Gauff what she needs most: time to set up her shots.
Unless Garcia’s fitness becomes a problem after 12 straight wins, and if the New York crowd doesn’t get to her on this big stage (both being risks worth taking in my opinion), I believe she has all the arguments to win this match. Prediction: Coco Gauff – Caroline Garcia 7-6 3-6 1-6.
Pick: Garcia
Odds: 1.83 @ 10Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 6 September
