Colombia – Peru

Colombia and Peru will square off with a place in the Copa America quarterfinals on the line. All 4 teams in Group C have 3 points after the first two rounds, so the race for qualification could not be tighter.

A defeat will very likely mean elimination for either side (especially for Colombia), while a two goal defeat would definitely mean elimination. In case of a draw, Peru will finish over Colombia, as they have more goals scored. While Peru will surely qualify with a draw, Colombia needs a win to be 100% sure of going trough to the Copa America quarters.

Colombia started off poorly with a 0-1 defeat to Venezuela and a not so good performance to go with the result. However, they recovered in brilliant fashion to rout Brazil 1-0 in the second round and will feel confident about their chances against Peru. The main selection dilemma will be in offense, where Jackson Martinez, Falcao and Gutierrez and Ibarbo are fighting for two spots alongside Cuadrado and James.

Peru is arguably the weakest team in this group. They lost 2-1 against Brazil in the last minutes of the game, so that was a decent result, but they were very naive defensively and were lucky to stay in the match for that long. They followed that up with a 1-0 win over Venezuela, but Venezuela had its best defender, Amorebieta, sent off in the 29th minute.

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Team news & lineups:

Bacca is suspended for Columbia, while the Peruvian manager might choose to leave Jefferson Farfan on the bench.

Colombia: Ospina – Zapata, Armero, Murillo, Zuniga – Sanchez, Valencia – Cuadrado, James, Jackson – Falcao

Peru: Gallese – Zambrano, Advincula, Ballon, Labaton – Cueva, Vargas, Sanchez – Ascues, Guerrero, Pizarro

Colombia really needs to win this game, they might even fail to qualify if they don’t. Even if they do qualify, it would be from the third place and they surely don’t want to meet Argentina in the quarters. Los Cafeteros are in a good spot after the win against Brazil and should be able to comfortably do the job against a Peru side that got better results than their play warranted.

All in all, my tip on this one is Colombia to win and cover a -1 asian handicap. Winning by two goals will not be easy, but we have the asian handicap to secure our stakes in case of a 1 goal win. Leaving aside the obvious quality difference, I`m counting on Colombia’s morale, their motivation and the matchup between their brilliant offense and Peru’s shaky defense. Prediction: Colombia – Peru 2-0.

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Pick: Colombia (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.13 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.04
Event date: 21 June