Connacht – Wasps

Guiness Pro 12 champions Connacht and English giants Wasps will square off Saturday in the 4th round of the European Rugby Champions Cup Pool 2. Wasps is dominating the group, while Connacht is fighting with Toulouse for the second place – but a win today could see them go first. The two teams met last week in the 3rd round, with Wasps winning at home 32 – 17.

Connacht is not having a good season so far, sitting on the 8th place in the Guinness Pro 12, which they surprisingly won last year. The Irish side won 4 and lost 5 in the Pro 12, while in the Champions Cup they won 2 and lost 1. Connacht did have a couple of superb matches in which they played great rugby, as they are sometimes capable of, but overall they have been disappointing this season and hosting Wasps will be one of their toughest tests of the year.

Wasps is hands down one of the best teams in Europe this season. Not only do they have a great squad and play great rugby, but they are showing championship pedigree by staying disciplined, converting their chances and winning even when they play below par or are shorthanded. Wasps are second in the Aviva Premiership, just one point behind the mighty Saracens and they are leading the Champions Cup Pool 2 with 2 wins and 1 draw (the draw coming away in France, against Toulouse).

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Team news & lineups:

It`s worth noting that Wasps continues to miss a couple of important players, most notably playmaker Danny Cipriani. However, these injuries are old news.

Connacht: 15 Tiernan O’Halloran, 14 Niyi Adeolokun, 13 Rory Parata, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Matt Healy, 10 Jack Carty, 9 Kieran Marmion, 8 John Muldoon (c), 7 Nepia Fox-Matamua, 6 Eoin McKeon, 5 Quinn Roux, 4 Ultan Dillane, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Tom McCartney, 1 Denis Buckley

Wasps: 15 Rob Miller, 14 Christian Wade, 13 Brendan Macken, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Josh Bassett, 10 Jimmy Gopperth, 9 Joe Simpson, 8 Nathan Hughes, 7 Thomas Young, 6 Ashley Johnson, 5 Kearnan Myall, 4 Joe Launchbury (c), 3 Jake Cooper-Woolley, 2 Tommy Taylor, 1 Matt Mullan

Wasps never trailed and were always in control of the game 1 week ago against Connacht. They won by 15 despite not playing great for their standards and having Kurtley Beale (highest paid player in England) yellow carded during a crucial stretch of the game. Connacht however can take some positives from that as they were in it until the last 15 minutes. They will hope to change the game at home, but that might not be possible.

Connacht is a really good home team, but that is pretty much the only thing working in their favor here. Both Connacht and Wasps like to play wide, expansive rugby, but Wasps is simply better in that department. Connacht does not quite have a B plan to surprise Wasps, so they will have to beat a superior team with their own weapons. That doesn`t happen too often. The matchup is favorable to Wasps here, especially when we consider that they also have a stronger pack, a better bench, a better kicking game and more experience.

It`s just difficult to see how Connacht could come on top here, aside from the X factor of them having a great game and Wasps a miserable one. They play more or less the same brand of rugby as Wasps, but are worse than the English giants in most departments and have much less depth in the squad. The bench should be (again) a huge advantage for Wasps.

Look for Wasps to try and put qualification to bed with a win. I expect them to do just that. Connacht might stay in it for 60 minutes or so, but the experience of Wasps and their better bench should see them dominate the last quarter of the game, just like it happened last week in Coventry. Add the fact that Connacht is low on confidence after a sub par season and it will be a monumental task for them to defeat a red hot powerhouse like Wasps.

The handicap line is reasonably set at 4,5 points, but I will choose extra safety here and bet on the straight Wasps win.

Simply put, Wasps is the better team, they are in better form this season and they have the matchup advantage. My tip is Wasps to win an entertaining game of rugby. Odds on this bet are currently dropping, so I`m taking it early. Prediction: Connacht – Wasps 21 – 28.

Pick: Wasps
Odds: 1.50 @ Slbet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.00
Event date: 17 December