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Match in Group H of the Euro 2016 qualifying tournament, Croatia hosts Azerbaijan in Round 3.
Croatia started off the qualifiers very strong with 2 wins without conceding a goal (2-0 vs. Malta, 1-0 in Bulgaria). Actually all of Croatia’s last 5 wins came without conceding a goal. Obviously hosts are very strong team … very well organized and rarely receive goals against weaker opponents. But Croatia should be aware that Azerbaijan barely lost to Italy 1-2 on Friday, so it will not be such an easy game. Croatia did not win big even vs. Malta in first round of qualifications … 2-0 at home. Coach said he is aware Azerbaijan is not to be overlooked and his team will be 100% concentrated, treating the game very seriously – which is good news for anybody who fancies a bet on Croatia today.
Azerbaijan played a very good tactical game in Italy … went down 1-0 in 44 minute but scored a goal from a set piece in the 76 minute to equalize 1-1. Unfortunately they were not able to hold the advantage and lost 2-1, could have even received 1 more goal at the end. It marked the 5th game without a win for Azerbaijan and the 12th game without a win away from home. Azerbaijan can defend pretty well piling up the numbers in their own area but struggle to find scoring chances … it looks a very low probability they can score a goal on the road against a team like Croatia, much stronger and that rarely allows goals even from top opponents.
I liked this bet yesterday from one of the tipsters on Betdistrict, even if it lost … I used it a couple of times myself and I will replicate it today for the Croatia – Azerbaijan game. Even if Azerbaijan scored vs. Italy it was lucky, they had no chances and are a team that don’t score too much … it is a well known fact and vs. Croatia it will be even harder than usual to make any scoring chance. On other hand they are emerging football nation, can defend and are not easy to break down. After I saw Croatia barely beating Malta 2-0 I really don’t believe they can score 4 goals vs. a team like Azerbaijan. My tip is Croatia to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0. Croatia to win to nil is also a good option but odds are lower. Correct score prediction: Croatia – Azerbaijan 2-0.
Pick: Croatia to win 1:0, 2:0 or 3:0
Odds: 2.00 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 13 October
