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Croatia needs a win in order to advance, while Mexico will go trough with a draw. Whoever gets the three points here will also finish on the first place if Brazil does not defeat Cameroon.
Croatia looked pretty good so far in the World Cup, losing 3-1 vs. Brazil mostly because of a circus penalty awarded to the hosts, then pulverizing Cameroon in a 4-0 win, a result which could have been even more one-sided. The europeans looked very sharp with Modric and Mandzukic starting together for the first time in the tournament and will try to keep up their goalscoring form in order to defeat an opponent which excelled on the defensive end so far.
Mexico’s draw against Brazil was an impressive result, even more so considering that Mexico held the most of possession against the hosts – even if keeper Ochoa had a couple of key saves to preserve the score! It was a good performance to back up the 1-0 win against Cameroon and the excellent level of play showcased before the World Cup, despite unluckily losing a couple of games. Mexico should feel confident of getting at least a draw today, they lost just twice in their last 11 outings (Bosnia, Portugal) and both times the defeat was extremely undeserving.
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Team news & lineups
Both sides will be happy to report a clean bill of health ahead of this deciding match. If I could give coach Herrera an advice it would be to start Chicharito Hernandez here and reports suggest that he will do exactly that.
Croatia: Pletikosa – Srna, Lovren, Corluka, Pranjic – Modric, Rakitic – Perisic, Kovacic, Olic – Mandzukic
Mexico: Ochoa – Rodriguez, Marquez, Herrera, Layun – Dos Santos, Moreno, Guardado, Peralta, Aguilar – Hernadez
The Croatians have more experience in their ranks and probably more individual quality as well, but Mexico has played excellent football under coach Herrera and are an extremely tough team to beat. I reckon the draw is the most likely result here, despite having the highest odds on the 1×2 market. I expect an evenly matched encounter with not too many risks involved. Croatia will try to get a win in order to advance but my advice is that Mexico will be able to hold on for a tied result. My tip is a draw. Prediction: Croatia – Mexico 1-1.
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.44 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 12.2
Event date: 23 June
