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Croatia hosts Norway in the 5th round of the Euro 2016 qualifying Group H.
The home team was almost flawless in this group, winning the first 3 games with a 9-0 aggregare before a 1-1 draw in Italy, where they controlled the match with surprising authority … Croatia deserved to win, played great football, but the draw was not bad either. Winning 6 of their last 7 matches at home and with Luka Modric back from injury, The hosts are looking as strong as ever and are deservingly favored by the odds, with a price of about 1.40 for Croatia to win. A win today would be a massive step in the the attempt to secure direct qualification for Euro 2016.
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Norway is third in the Group H standings and has a nice generation of young footballers, they could be very good in a couple of years … and are actually starting to look decent already. There is still work to do though and their stats with 9 points in 4 games do not tell the whole story (stats rarely do). Norway defeated Azerbaijan and Malta, but was clearly outplayed by Italy at home and their hard fought 2-1 home win vs. Bulgaria is nothing to brag about. The defense is a little bit shaky and the lack of experience is obvious, representing a big handicap.
A seasoned team like Croatia should win this game without too much stress, especially at home. Norway will be no pushovers, but playing away in Croatia in front of a packed stadium will highlight their lack of experience and, why not, their limitations. The hosts are exactly the kind of team that Norway does not like at the moment … organized, experienced and with superior quality.
A typical solid home game from Croatia should be enough for a 2 goal win … so with this in mind, my tip will be Croatia to win and to cover a -1,25 goal asian handicap while they`re at it. Correct score prediction: Croatia – Norway 2-0.
Pick: Croatia (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.11 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.88
Event date: 28 March
