Croatia – Romania

Croatia will take on host nation Romania in Group C of the 2017 Eurobasket, with both teams having played their first match in the competition on Friday. Croatia beat Hungary, while Romania lost against Czech Republic.

Croatia came into this tournament as one of the favorites for medals and they definitely have a shot to reach the final 4 considering the talent they have at their disposal. The Croatians have three NBA players, Dario Saric (76ers), Bender (Suns) and Bogdanovic (Pacers), all of them being guys who have real impact on their teams, Saric being a legit star already. Croatia also has a deep, balanced squad overall, with players from very good European teams. Despite this, Croatia wasn`t very impressive in their opening Eurobasket game, winning by just 9 points against Hungary.

Romania qualified for this tournament by virtue of being one of the hosts, otherwise they wouldn`t have made it. The Romanians are the worst team in the competition with just one player in the squad being fit for this level (Moldoveanu, Demir). The rest of the team plays at domestic club level and most of the players wouldn`t even make the rosters there if not for a home grown rule. Also Romania doesn`t have a single point guard in the squad after failing to naturalize Giordan Watson (who was supposed to be their PG in this tournament) in time. Romania’s lack of quality was obvious right from the first game, as they lost by 15 points against a mediocre Czech team.

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Romania was soundly beaten by Czech Republic on Friday and what is more worrying for the Romanians is that they actually played very well in the first half, above their level. Despite this, they ended up losing by 15 (and at one point seemed like they could lose by 20+) against an injury ravaged Czech Republic team who did not impress and is nowhere near the level of Croatia.

The loss came to confirm Romania’s lack of quality, as well as their poor form, as the hosts were coming after horrible results in preparation for the tournament – losing against Greece, Ukraine, Latvia and Letonia, each time by 30 or more points (Greece beat them by 58!).

The gap in quality is obviously massive here and that alone should allow Croatia to win big, but there are also other circumstances working in their favor.

A big reason for concern for Romania will be the fact that they were visibly tired in the second half against Czech Republic on Friday. The Romanian players are not used to facing this level of competition and they had to put extra effort, which hurt them as the match went on. Now, with less than 24 hours rest (another thing they are not used to) and meeting a powerhouse like Croatia, the Romanians might suffer physically.

Also, Romania’s star player Moldoveanu (24 pts, 8 reb vs Czech Republic), will match up against Dario Saric, a matchup Moldoveanu can not win. Chances are his impact will be limited and if that happens, Romania is in big trouble – as they really have no other go to guy.

While the Croatians didn`t play great against Hungary, they did find their groove in the 4th quarter (which they won 15-5), and will look to pick up right from where they left off, continuing on the same note against Romania. With one match under their belt, Croatia should be less rusty and play better here.

Add Romania’s lack of quality and potential fatigue, and you have to feel that Croatia could hand them an embarrassing beating. The 20 point spread is not such a high number to be covered in 40 minutes considering the circumstances and the difference in class.

My tip is Croatia to cover the 20 point (asian) handicap and I`m confident enough to stake 9 units on this bet. Prediction: Croatia – Romania 88 – 57.

Pick: Croatia -20
Odds: 1.95 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.55
Event date: 2 September