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Current champions and league leaders Cruzeiro host Bahia as 1.35 odds favorites in the Brazilian Serie A, round 20.
Cruzeiro is by far the most trustworthy team in a Brazilian league that usually is very tight and unpredictable … easy champions last year, probably this year as well (have 7 points in front of the 2nd place). Unlike other high profile teams from Serie A, Cruzeiro does not rely on big-names and old stars, but have a very balanced and cohesive squad with players in the pinnacle of their careers. Their only big name is Julio Baptista. Cruzeiro has 8 wins and 1 draw in 9 matches at home and has won by an average of over 2 goals per game on their home court … so you always expect them to cover a 1 goal handicap. Last round Cruzeiro made a 3-3 draw at Fluminense after 6 consecutive wins (all competitions). Cruzeiro has 3 players missing: Borges, Egidio and Bruno Rodrigo.
Bahia is on the 19th place and looks like a clear relegation candidate this year with only 17 points in 19 rounds. But even with this poor stats Bahia is actually not such an easy team to beat … they have a horrible offense and can`t score / win games but can defend and frustrate opponents. Bahia has 4 draws in the last 5 games but has not scored a single goal in the last 4 matches. Big problems with injuries and suspensions for Bahia today: 6 players will miss the game, 4 of them by suspension.
Cruzeiro is just too dominant in this division to let points slip away vs. the 19th placed team at home, where they won 8 out of 9 matches … especially with Bahia decimated by injuries and suspensions. Normally a Cruzeiro win with a 1 goal handicap seems like a good bet but against such a defensive team like Bahia it might be a little bit hard even for Cruzeiro to cover … though I do expect them to do it. But overall I think the better pick is Cruzeiro to win to nil. They will be very focused at the back for sure after allowing 3 goals from Fluminense last round … Bahia can`t score against anyone, so it is really unlikely they will do it on the road against the best team in the league … especially with all those missing players. My tip is Cruzeiro to win to nil but I think the handicap is ok to try as well. Correct score prediction: Cruzeiro – Bahia 2-0.
Pick: Cruzeiro to win to nil
Odds: 1.85 @ William Hill
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.65
Event date: 11 September
