The Dallas Mavericks will attempt to avoid a sweep tonight in Game 4 against the Golden State Warriors, as the Dubs have won the first three games and are just one victory away from the NBA Finals.
While I do think the Warriors win tonight, I would not be shocked if Dallas manages to steal one at home, so I will look into a different bet here.
I will go with Andrew Wiggins to score under 16,5 points, and the reasoning is pretty simple.
Wiggins had a magnificent Game 3, scoring 27 points and posterizing Luka Doncic with an insane dunk in the 4th quarter. That is unlikely to happen again.
First of all, Wiggins, a 17.2 ppg scorer this season (and 15.9 ppg in the playoffs), will see more attention from the Mavs defense after he went off two nights ago, so I don’t see him taking anywhere near 20 shots this time around.
Secondly, Wiggins, although much more consistent since he joined the Warriors, continues to struggle putting up consecutive big nights. The last ten times he scored 20 or more points, he followed that up with the following performances: 12, 17, 10, 9, 16, 12, 23, 12, 10, 17. As such, he went over today’s total of 16,5 points only 3/10 times, and twice it was 17 points.
I think Wiggins is due an off night after his big performance on Sunday night, he is prone to this kind of cool off and the Mavs will focus more intensely on him.