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The first semifinal of ATP Bucharest will see the surprising Gimeno-Traver take on a red hot Jiri Vesely.
Gimeno Traver is such a peculiar player. He`s usually pretty poor and when he`s playing bad, it`s funny to watch him – he mishits the ball, moves weird, looks like an amateur player. However, in the rare moments when he`s on form, he can produce some stunning tennis – excellent serve and great offensive groundstrokes, especially his forehand with which he can find incredible angles. Here in Bucharest he defeated Troicki in three sets (dominating the last two), Mektic in two sets (some problems in the first) and in a huge upset, Simon in 3 sets.
The upset win over Simon was gigantic as far as I`m concerned, especially after Gimeno lost the opening set despite having multiple chances to close it out (serving for the match at 5-3 and having a 5-3 advantage in the tiebreak). Gimeno is clearly playing some of his best tennis right now, but he did show weaknesses in all of his matches – not having consistency troughout the games and falling mentally at times as well. However, his form here is not just a fluke, as he recently played the final in Cassablanca.
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The young gun Jiri Vesely is having a breakout year, he`s playing his third semifinal of the season and already won a title in Auckland. Here in Bucharest Vesely was arguably the most impressive player so far, along with Monfils. He is yet to drop a set against Schwartzman, Jaziri and Karlovic and in his last two matches he didn’t concede a single break of serve – which is amazing on clay. I was surprised and impressed by the way he dispatched Karlovic 6-4 6-4, I was convinced that Ivo will keep serve but my horrible form this month continues (form for which I am really ashamed, but it will improve).
Daniel Gimeno Traver leads the Head 2 Head 2-0 (1-0 on clay) and the big news is that he defeated Vesely just two weeks ago in Cassablanca on the same surface – a tight 6-7 6-4 6-4 win. The Czech player will be keen to avoid another similar outcome in similar circumstances.
I think Vesely will win this, but considering the Head 2 Head and the recent victory of Gimeno Traver in Cassablanca, I would not be surprised if Daniel manages another upset. Both guys are in absolute top form (playing the tennis of their lives actually) and it should be a very tight match with a lot of ups and downs. A final would be a massive performance for each of these two, so I can`t see anybody relinquishing a single centimeter or giving up the fight. Expect some grueling rallies and this will most likely go to a deciding set.
Over 2,5 sets to be played seems like the best value bet, but my tip is over 22 games – just in case somebody manages to grind it out in two. The line is pretty low, so I will invest high stakes on the bet. Prediction: Daniel Gimeno Traver – Jiri Vesely 5-7 6-3 6-7.
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Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 25 April
