Medvedev – Dimitrov

Daniil Medvedev and Grigor Dimitrov will square off on Friday with a place in the US Open final on the line, which would be a first for either of the two competitors.

Medvedev has been by far the player to beat over the last couple of months during the North American hard court swing, rising his game to an absolutely elite level and reaching the Number 4 spot in the ATP rankings. The Russian played three hard court tournaments prior to the US Open and reached the final in all of them, including two consecutive finals at the Montreal Masters (lost to Nadal) and Cincinnati Masters (which he won). Here at the US Open Medvedev struggled a bit with injuries and fatigue since the second round, and got in trouble with the crowd. But he got over those issues to reach the semifinals with wins over Gunneswaran, Dellien, Lopez, Koepfer and Wawrinka (losing a set in each of his last four matches).

Grigor Dimitrov is coming after a shocking five set win over Federer in the quarterfinals. There was nothing suggesting that result could be possible, as Dimitrov was coming into the US Open in poor form and after a miserable year overall, which almost saw him exit the Top 100. Even here at Flushing Meadows Dimitrov kind of went under the radar until the Federer match. The Bulgarian defeated Seppi 3-1 in the first round, got a walkover over Coric in the second round, defeated Majchrzak 3-0 in the third round and De Minaur 3-0 in the fourth round. His schedule was very easy until Fed, and his game wasn`t looking particularly special.

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The H2H is tied at 1-1 (1-0 for Medvedev on hard courts), but both meetings took place in 2017, so that doesn`t say much. Both players are perfectly suited for these hard courts at US Open, so the surface won`t be a factor.

Dimitrov didn`t necessarily look that great earlier in the tournament, and he seemed just above average to me in his fourth round win over De Minaur. Dimitrov made plenty of mistakes, but De Minaur was just very poor on the day. But the shocking win over Federer showed us an in form Dimitrov, and it was a win which also required great mental strength considering the matchup between those two (with Federer leading the H2H 7-0 and losing 2 sets in 7 meetings).

However, we can`t gloss over the fact that Federer was in control before his back got stiff in the last two sets. He was injured at the end, and could not compete at a proper level. That makes you wonder if Dimitrov isn`t a bit lucky to be on this stage.

As for Medvedev, the man has been in devastating form over the past few weeks, playing the best tennis on tour during the hard court season. His road at US Open was marked by complaints about fatigue and injuries (after playing so much tennis recently), and fights with the crowd, but Medvedev kept getting over the line match after match, playing high class tennis despite his antics.

I`m not afraid to go out on a limb and predict that he is the man who will finally end the Big 3 domination at the top of tennis. The guy has it all. He has the game, he has the attitude, the composure, the stamina. He has that kind of special quality to win even when he’s playing poorly, and to make his opponents play worse than their best. His demeanour is so similar to that of a young Djokovic.

Medvedev keeps finding ways to win, and looking at his game you have to wonder what kind of effort and tactic it would take to beat him. Dimitrov would likely have to play the best match of his career to win this.

Medvedev’s fitness is indeed a risk, but I am willing to take it. The guys is cut from a different cloth, his fitness and heart are through the roof, and many of his theatrics in the previous matches were likely fake – his winning (and winning in style) is proof enough of that. He said that he wasn`t fatigued against Wawrinka in the quarters, but just suffered a fluke quadriceps issue which got better with time. I doubt fatigue will be an issue in a Grand Slam semifinal, but that`s for everybody to decide for himself.

My tip will be Medvedev to win. His results and current level of play simply hold much more weight than Dimitrov’s easy draw and win against an injured Federer. Predicticon: Daniil Medvedev – Grigor Dimitrov 7-6 2-6 6-4 6-2.

Pick: Medvedev
Odds: 1.61 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.49
Event date: 6 September