Ferrer – Murray

David Ferrer and Andy Murray will meeet for the second time in 10 days in a crucial matchup regarding the ATP World Tout finals qualification. This is the ATP Vienna final.

David Ferrer didn`t quite have his best season in 2014, but he has generally been stable. He can play better than he is right now but he`s at a very good level nevertheless. David is on the back of a quarterfinal showing at Shanghai (defeated Murray, lost to Djokovic) and this week he got past Kamke, Karlovic and Kohlschreiber. Ferrer lost his first set of the tournament against Kohlschreiber and needed a third set tiebreak to get the win.

Murray still not playing what he can, he`s still searching for his rhythm. Similar to Ferrer he`s playing well, but he can play better tennis. Andy`s recent results have been rather disappointing but this week he reached the final without losing a single set, getting past Pospisil, Struff and Troicki – not exactly world beaters.

Bet on David Ferrer vs. Andy Murray at ATP Vienna with the best odds offered by Pinnacle.

The H2H is 7-6 for Murray (6-2 on hard), but David won the last meeting last week 2-6 6-1 6-2 in Shanghai. Generally Ferrer knows how to play Murray, but it`s obvious that Andy has the upper hand on hard courts and that should help him today, especially in indoor conditions in Vienna.

Andy might have won all matches in straight sets, but he has not been tested and met inferior opposition compared to what Ferrer had to face. I find it strange that just one week after beating Murray, Ferrer has odds of over 3.50 to defeat the Brit. Ferrer surely has a fighting chance here but the odds do not reflect that, so naturally I feel the value is all on the Spaniard. He also needs the victory more than Murray for the ATP World Tour Finals qualification, but I`m not sure if that can make a difference – just another assurance that Ferrer will fight until the end, like he always does. The surface does favor Murray (see H2H), but if Ferrer took care of business last week he can do it today as well. My tip is Ferrer to win – I feel this is a bet worth risking instead of any kind of handicap, because these two can win sets to 1 and 2, so a handicap becomes dangerous. I`m tipping the value. Prediction: David Ferrer – Andy Murray 6-4 2-6 7-6.

Pick: Ferrer
Odds: 3.80 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 14
Event date: 19 October