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David Goffin and Jan-Lennard Struff will square off in the first semifinal of the ATP Metz Open, played on indoor hard.
The young Belgian David Goffin is without a doubt one of the hottest guys in tennis right now. After a span of poor results in the last 2 years Goffin simple exploded in the second part of this season, putting a run of 25 consecutive wins (ATP + challenger) on both clay and hard before falling to Janowicz in the Winston Salem semifinals. The loss did not dishearten Goffin and he went on to win 7 of the next 8 matches, including 3 impressing victories here at Metz. David demolished Serra and Kamke in the first two rounds before beating number 1 favorite Tsonga in 3 sets yesterday. Everybody knew Goffin is a big talent, but the way he played in the last few months was just amazing and he`s at the top of his game here in Metz.
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Struff entered Metz on the back of a decent showing at the Szczecin challenger (clay), where he reached the final – his first decent result in some time. This week Struff struggled to get two hard fought 3 set wins against Lajovic and Chardy before benefiting from Kohlschreiber`s retirement in the quarters, with Struff leading 5-0 in the first set. Jan-Lennard has upped his level and is playing good tennis right now, but clearly he was a little lucky to get this far and he was far from dominant in his wins.
The two players met only once, this year in the Miami qualifiers on hard, and Goffin won 2-6 6-4 6-1 despite being in poor form at that time.
Goffin to win at odds of about 1.40 must be the best bet of the day, the price is simply outrageous and I expect it to drop somewhere close to 1.30 until match time, maybe even lower – this is a bet that should preferably be taken early. Listen, Struff did ok to reach the semis but he is not at a top level of play, making some errors, forced and unforced, having a rather lucky road to this stage. Goffin is simply brimming with confidence, rarely missing a shot. He`s in tremendous form and he`s also the better overall player. Everything can happen in sport and tennis but I see no way for Struff to win this and for the best value I will tip Goffin to win with a -1,5 set handicap – it`s the best option right now between all handicaps and set betting. Prediction: David Goffin – Jan-Lennard Struff 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Goffin (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 1.95 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.50
Event date: 20 September
It’s actually scary how good bet this is supposed to be. I realize the same thing about Goffin form last year,and played over gems on match against Tsonga and it was easy money.
Tomorrow Goffin and Real Madrid for me is a bet that I will put some serious money on. And Monfils is pretty sure bet.
I know what you mean, it`s so good that it seems something “must” go wrong. But we can only play the odds and probabilities – and this bet is worth it for sure. Only logical danger could be if Struff finds the tennis of his live and takes a set 7-6, that is where a game handicap would come in handy, but at the time of the pick there were no game handicaps available and it was not worth to wait, as the odds were dropping (and are still dropping) super fast.
I agree with Monfils, I was watching Souza – Mathieu and thinking “man, Monfils will own whoever wins this”. He should own Souza even more, since Mathieu should have won it.