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Davydenko refuses to give up, despite the fact that he is not able to produce his best level of tennis for a few years now, and will probably never do it again in his career. Whenever his ranking really starts to plummet, the russian finds a way to come up with some solid form and stay relevant in the top 40. That is also the case now. Nikolay showed glimpses of his old self last week at Montreal before having to retire against Pospisil in the quarterfinals, suffering from a form of bronchitis.
Del Potro also had health problems at Montreal, this being the reason for which he lost early in the 3rd round, at Raonic. But the argentinian had more serious issues than Davy. A cold / bronchitis is easily cured at this level, while Del Potro`s back problems can cause big damage both short and long – term.
The point is that there is a chance Del Potro won`t be able to play at his normal level, he could present himself even worse than he did in Montreal. With US Open just around the corner, he surely won`t force himself if he feels the slightest discomfort, he will play it safe like he did in Canada. If this would be the case, an in form Davydenko would certainly have a chance as he is still able to beat top players on his day. He did it twice this year, defeating Tipsarevic and Ferrer, and he almost beat Berdych and Gasquet too.
Another important thing is that the surface here is Davydenko`s favourite. The courts in Cincinnati are very fast, and the russian loves these conditions as they give him the best chance to take advantage of his dynamic shots and fantastic angles. He proved that in the first round, where he built on his last week form to dispatch strong Paire in two sets.
H2H is 3-3, they met this year in Indian Wells and Juan Martin won 6-4 6-3.
Of course Del Potro is the favorite, but it only takes two things for this match to be won by Davidenko, and both are very plausible: the argentinian to still have back problems, and Davy to keep his current level of play.
In these conditions, a small stake on Nikolay seems to be a good choice. I will choose a bookmaker who voids bets in case of retirements (vast majority of bookies do so), even if the possibility of Juan Martin to give up the match exists. But if somehow Davy is still troubled by that bronchitis and forfaits the match it would be pretty stupid to lose this way.
It`s a match with many unknown possibilities, perfect for a huge upset.
Pick: Davydenko
Odds: 4.59 @ Unibet
Stake: 3
Possible profit: 10.77
Event date: 14 August
