Shapovalov – Carreno Busta

Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno-Busta will square off in what seems to be an evenly matched clash in the US Open 4th round.

The 18 year old Shapovalov had a breakout year, posting an amazing 44-18 win / loss record if we include all levels of competition (futures, challengers, ATP). But despite playing well all year, his true breakthrough came after Wimbledon, when he started an incredible run which is still well alive. Shapovalov reached the semifinals at the Montreal Masters (def. Nadal along the way) and continued with the same level here at the US Open – passing the qualifying tournament and then defeating Medvedev (3-0), Tsonga (3-0) and Edmund (2-1 ret.). He was already in control of the match before Edmund started being bothered by a neck issue in the previous round.

Carreno Busta had a brilliant start of 2017 and on the European clay he was playing some Top 10 level tennis, but he suffered an injury in the Roland Garros quarterfinals and struggled to recover since then. Carreno Busta was mediocre in the last couple of months on the US hard courts, losing in the 2nd round at Montreal (Anderson), in the 3rd round at Cincinnati (Ferrer) and in the first round at Winston Salem (Benneteau). The Spaniard will be happy with his progress at the US Open though, as he hasn`t lost a set in three matches, although he did have an easy draw (King, Norrie, Mahut).

Bet on Shapovalov v Carreno Busta and get your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet!

This will be the first meeting between Shapovalov and Carreno Busta. The two have similar styles of play, being aggressive baseliners, although Shapovalov is probably a bit more offensive. The surface might represent a small advantage for Shapovalov, as he is a natural hard courter, but Carreno Busta (despite liking clay more) is well accomplished on hard courts himself. All in all, the surface here in New York shouldn`t be a big factor in deciding the outcome.

Shapovalov has truly played some great tennis over the last few weeks, won 10 of his last 11 matches and truth is he didn`t play a single bad match in that timespan. His only loss during this run was against Alex Zverev in the Montreal semifinals and Shapovalov was at a very high level in that clash, losing a very tight two setter.

Carreno Busta on the other hand din`t impress pre – US Open and his progress here has a big asterisk attached to it, as the level of opposition was really poor. Actually Carreno Busta was never priced above 1.25 to win in any of the first three rounds, so his straight sets wins were no more than what was expected.

The Spaniard played some good tennis, of course, but he did have ups and downs during matches here at the Open, something you didn`t see at Shapovalov except for maybe the first set against Edmund – but Edmund was always going to be a dangerous adversary.

All things being considered, Shapovalov is simply playing the better tennis at the moment and his form has been much better than Carreno’s for the entire hard court season. As the styles matchup shouldn`t be an issue, a bet on Shapovalov definitely makes sense.

His age must always be taken into account and is a risk, but at these odds I am willing to take it. If the young Canadian plays at the same level he did in the last three weeks, he should win this. Hopefully he won`t have a meltdown exactly now (there is no reason to suggest that), so my tip is Shapovalov to win. Prediction: Denis Shapovalov – Pablo Carreno Busta 2-6 6-4 6-3 7-6.

Pick: Shapovalov
Odds: 1.80 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 3 September