Denmark – Poland

The World Cup 2018 qualification tournament for Europe continues, and one of Friday`s matches will see Denmark take on Poland in Group E. Poland is well ahead at the top of the group with 16 points, while Denmark is tied with Montenegro for the second place with 10 points.

Denmark didn`t start the group well, barely defeating Armenia 1-0 in their first game and then losing against both Poland and Montenegro. However, the Danes turned it around quickly and gained 7 points in their next three matches with two comfortable wins vs Kazakhstan and a draw in Romania.

Poland made full use of their top seed status and cruised so far in this group, losing just 2 points in the first 6 matches – a 2-2 draw in the opening round in Kazakhstan, after they lost focus when they were leading 2-0. Poland has won the next 5 matches in the group, including a 3-2 home win against Denmark and a 3-1 home win against Romania in their last game.

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Team news: Neither team has reported any game changing injuries ahead of this match.

Poland is the better team here, but Denmark having home court advantage makes this an evenly matched clash and a fair case could be made that the draw is the most likely result – something which isn`t reflected in the odds.

Not only is this a balanced clash, but both teams might well be satisfied with a tied result. One point will strengthen Poland’s position at the top of the group, while Denmark would claim an important point against the top team in the group which could end up being very important in their duel for the second place with Montenegro.

It has to be said that the second place in Group E (Montenegro / Denmark) is currently the worst from all groups, and at the moment the team who finishes second in this group would be the only one not to qualify for the playoffs. This could raise the question if Denmark would really be satisfied with a draw, or if they will feel pressure to claim all three points.

However, there are still 3 rounds left to be played after this one. Denmark has to play Armenia (away), Montenegro (away) and Romania (home). The Danes will feel they should beat Armenia and Romania, and they would need a result in Montenegro anyway to finish second – so with those extra 7-9 points they expect, they will be well in contention to qualify for the playoffs with a draw here. A loss on the other hand will create problems.

Denmark can play a solid brand of tactical and pragmatic football when they want, as we saw in Romania earlier in this group. Obviously they would like to win, but chances are they will play it safe and not risk too much. Poland, of course, doesn`t even need a win and will be happy with one point.

I think there`s value on the draw here, so that will be my tip – only with low-medium stakes though. 0-0 or 1-1 would be my call. Prediction: Denmark – Poland 1-1.

Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.48 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4
Possible profit: 9.92
Event date: 1 September