Nuggets – Suns

Two young teams in the form of Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns will square off at Pepsi Center in Denver. Both teams have a shot to reach the 8th seed in the Western Conference, particularly Denver, so there will be plenty to fight for in this meeting, even if it`s still relatively early in the season.

Denver (19-25, 11-11 home) have won 3 straight at Pepsi Center and are currently on the 8th spot in the West. With a young and exuberant roster, The Nuggets are playing well at the moment and are definitely very difficult to beat at home – as opposing teams have a tough time resisting a high energy team in high altitude. Starting PG Mudiay is questionable ahead of this game.

Phoenix (15-30, 7-17 away) won 2 straight on the road against Toronto and New York before falling to Minnesota on Tuesday night, via a game winning shot by Andrew Wiggins. Despite their unimpressive record, the Suns are playing really well lately, notched some big wins against teams like Toronto or San Antonio and they are starting to dream about the playoffs.

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I believe the bookies have gone too far with the under / over line here. This season there have been a lot of overs in the NBA, as the game is evolving towards a faster pace and more 3 point shots. These two teams make no exception, but 231 points seems a bit too much. I doubt Denver and Phoenix can score so much against one another.

Denver is scoring 109.7 points per game and allows 110.9 points per game. Phoenix is scoring 106.2 points PPG and allows 111.5 PPG. These stats would suggest an under / over line around 220 points rather than 231.

Phoenix has been involved in a match with over 230 points only once in their last 14 games. Denver just 6 times in the last 17 games and not a single time in the last 4.

No matter how you spin these stats, they are not in accordance with the 230 point line. I believe there`s value to be taken on the under here. I also think Denver will cover the spread, but I think the odds on the home side are a bit too low, as they are not world beaters and Phoenix has the ability to produce upsets.

My tip is under 231 points to be scored. As long as these two teams don`t shoot way above their usual percentage, I think the bet should be a winner. Prediction: Denver Nuggets – Phoenix Suns 118 – 104.

Pick: under 231 points
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.51
Event date: 27 January